It seems the army has settled for a long haul in Sylhet to neutralise the militants

One reason the army is perhaps not providing much information on 'Operation Twilight' since they took over the show on Saturday is perhaps because they have been compelled to settle for a long haul to wear down and neutralise the militants.

Subir Bhaumikbdnews24.com
Published : 26 March 2017, 10:42 AM
Updated : 26 March 2017, 12:50 PM

When the police encircled the complex housing the two buildings where the militants are holed up, the element of surprise was lost. 

The militants knew they have been encircled and sooner or later they would have to brace for a full-fledged assault. 

The police, surely recalling the Holey Artisan Bakery experience, did not press for a storming assault. 

They had lost two officers at Holey Artisan before it was decided to bring the para-commandos in. 

They had some information about the militants holed up, perhaps with one of their top leaders. 

But since they were not sure of the weapons and the motivation of the militants, who have recently displayed a tendency to use suicide vests, the police decided to throw a cordon and prevent the militants from escaping. 

By Friday, the SWAT and RAB personnel had reinforced the cordon around the complex. 

On Saturday, the army moved in with their para-commandos to take charge of the operation. The security czars perhaps wanted a repeat of Holey Artisan. 

The army began by changing the name of the operation - Twilight from Spring Rain.

That would have suggested the army was bargaining for at least a whole day to finish the operation. Naming an operation is often key to understanding tactical priorities.

The experience of the Holey Artisan Bakery, where the para-commandos were blamed for not trying to save the hostages, must have weighed heavy on their commander.

So the first task the para-commandos got down to was the evacuation of the civilians in the two buildings, apparently while under fire.

This is the most difficult part of the operation - bringing out civilians, uninitiated in the realities of combat, safely while under fire from ruthless extremists who were as prepared to kill as to die.

The para-commandos braved gunfire and explosions to bring out 78 civilians - a feat worth praising.

It is not yet clear whether the militants are holding any hostages, but even if they are, the number would be much smaller than those killed at Holey Artisan.

Just when the militants realised they were losing the human shield, they tried to strike to create a tactical diversion.

In all likelihood, a second group belonging to the same organisation whose militants are holed up inside the two buildings rushed to hit the outer cordon. A motorcycle-riding duo or two of them swooped in, lobbing grenades at the police and RAB personnel.

The hit and run causing police and civilian casualties in the evening hours was perhaps designed to create panic and confusion and might well have been an effort to drive a wedge in the cordon to facilitate the escape of a senior leader reportedly holed up in the complex.

Senior police sources have been reporting that neo-JMB leader Musa was perhaps inside the buildings - if he was indeed there, it might be interesting to find out whether he could escape during the chaos caused by the explosions on Saturday evening.

The intermittent nature of the combat engagement - sporadic explosions and occasional bursts of intense gunfire - would point to both sides ''sizing each other up' - the army trying to figure out the militants and vice versa. That phase is perhaps not yet over.

The army would also try to interrogate rescued civilians for some actual intelligence. That takes time. 

There are some reports that the militants have wired up a string of improvised explosives all across the multi-storeyed buildings which they might explode to inflict many casualties on the assault group.

Fighting a determined fanatic militant group in a built-up area is a huge challenge. 

The assault group would have to brace for much higher level of casualties, especially if the militants have explosives and remote-controlled detonation devices and use suicide bombers to man the key entry points.

Looks like this might not be a cakewalk like Holey Artisan. 

Since all utilities to the building have been snapped, the army may try to wear down the militants.

Slithering down from helicopters, like the Indian NSG did to neutralise the Pakistani militants in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, may not be a viable option if the building is rigged with explosives.

Three days is a long enough time for a determined group of militants to do that.

The huge explosions that have been accompanying any exchange of fire is perhaps due to the militants lobbing grenades or triggering some placed explosives to block the commando assault.

Psyching out the militants has not perhaps worked so far. 

In counter-terrorism, heavy armour is no good unless it is used to bring down structures (like at Holey Artisan) or unless the commandos are prepared for much collateral damage.

It is more important to possess stun grenades and tranquilising bombs that can deactivate the militants and enable a room-by-room takeover, as in Mumbai.

The NSG lost one major leading the assault and others in the last fight to neutralise the LET militants.

Those holed up in Sylhet are perhaps not that well trained - but their level of motivation might be as high.

That is when the commander masterminding the assault has to take the call - accept high casualties or wait and wear down the militants' resolve.