Home
+
Published : 13 Jun 2026, 07:35 PM
Britain's Royal Institute of International Affairs, also known as Chatham House, says the governments emerging from youth-led protest movements in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka continue to enjoy public mandates but are increasingly facing governance, economic, and geopolitical pressures.
In an analysis, the London-based policy institute said the three South Asian countries are at a turning point as post-revolution optimism gives way to the practical challenges of governing amid economic strain, regional tensions and unmet reform expectations.
The report traces recent political upheavals in the region.
Sri Lanka’s 2022 Aragalaya (Struggle) movement led to the overthrow of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Bangladesh’s 2024 “Monsoon Revolution” removed Sheikh Hasina from power, and Nepal’s 2025 “Gen Z revolution” toppled Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli.
Chatham House said these movements were driven by economic distress, demographic pressures, political dysfunction, corruption and growing frustration with entrenched elites, with social media playing a key role in mobilising anti-establishment sentiment.
While outcomes varied, the report said all three countries now face broadly similar challenges.
Nepal elected former rapper Balendra Shah as prime minister, Sri Lanka’s President Anura Kumara Dissanayake led a coalition headed by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), while Bangladesh saw continuity through the election of BNP leader Tarique Rahman as prime minister.
The report said all three governments began with strong mandates but are now seeing rising questions over implementation capacity and reform delivery.
Bangladesh Political Divide
Chatham House said Bangladesh’s central political divide remains between its two long-established dynastic parties -- the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Awami League -- while attempts to build a credible youth-led “third front” failed to gain traction in the election.
It noted that the current rivalry has been effectively deferred due to a ban on the Awami League.
However, it warned this arrangement is not sustainable in the long term.
The think tank said to break the cycle of political “revenge politics” that has historically shaped Bangladesh’s political landscape, it would eventually be necessary for the Awami League to be rehabilitated in some form.
The report added that unresolved political tensions could continue to shape instability unless a more inclusive political settlement is achieved.
Governance Pressures and Regional Risks
In Bangladesh, Chatham House highlighted concerns over rising violent crime following the Army’s return to the barracks after the February election, as well as uncertainty over the full implementation of proposed reforms under the July National Charter.
It said strong electoral mandates do not guarantee stability, particularly where institutions remain fragile and societies are deeply divided.
The report also pointed to shared external pressures across the region, including the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has contributed to inflation, fuel supply concerns and fiscal constraints. Heavy reliance on Gulf remittances has further increased vulnerability.
Relations with India were described as another key challenge.
While India remains an important partner in development assistance, infrastructure and energy supply, Chatham House said its regional influence also generates mistrust among neighbouring states.
In Bangladesh, it noted that improved coordination with India following the Bharatiya Janata Party’s electoral gains in West Bengal could help advance issues such as the renewal of the Ganga water-sharing treaty.
However, it also warned that identity-based politics and border tensions could complicate relations.
The report said Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka all face similar risks of unmet expectations, economic shocks and difficult regional dynamics.
“If they are unable to rise to these challenges, they themselves may come under pressure from renewed protests in the future,” Chatham House said.
