Bangladesh stands at crossroads as India, US align and China rises

Bangladesh has emerged as a crucial geostrategic node in the changing landscape of great-power interests, says Sayeed Iftekhar Ahmed

The recent alignment between India and the United States has sparked significant debate across South Asia, particularly in Bangladesh, which now finds itself at the crossroads of competing great-power interests. What seems like a simple trade adjustment -- where Washington reduces tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for New Delhi agreeing to stop purchasing oil from Russia -- actually indicates a deeper strategic realignment.

The Indo-Pacific has emerged as the central arena for geopolitical competition, with both India and the United States sharing a long-term goal: to restrict China’s influence throughout South Asia and the greater Indo-Pacific region. Bangladesh, once seen as peripheral to major power dynamics, has now emerged as a crucial geostrategic node in this changing landscape.

To fully understand the implications of this shift, it is essential to place it within the historical context of India's relations with Russia and the United States, as well as Bangladesh's intricate connections with India, China, and Washington. Additionally, a careful evaluation of Bangladesh's internal political and economic vulnerabilities is necessary, as these factors will influence how the next government responds to external pressures following the Feb 12 election.

INDIA’S DELICATE DANCE BETWEEN MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON

Since gaining independence, India’s foreign policy has been characterised by strategic autonomy. During the Cold War, New Delhi aligned itself closely with the Soviet Union, particularly following the 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Cooperation.

As a result, Moscow became India’s primary defence supplier, diplomatic supporter, and technological partner. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia remained a key player in India's military modernisation, with over half of India’s defence inventory still originating from Russia.

However, India's relationship with the United States began to change in the early 2000s. The 2005 US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement marked a pivotal moment, indicating Washington's readiness to acknowledge India as an emerging power and a counterbalance to China.

Over the following two decades, defence cooperation between the two nations deepened, culminating in foundational agreements on logistics, communications, and geospatial intelligence. The formation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes the US, India, Japan, and Australia, further solidified India’s alignment with the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy.

Nonetheless, India has continued to maintain strong ties with Russia, particularly in the areas of energy and defence. Delhi's choice to purchase discounted Russian oil following the Ukraine war underscores this long-standing partnership.

Meanwhile, the recent understanding between the US and India -- where India reportedly commits to halt its Russian oil imports in exchange for tariff relief -- signals a subtle yet significant shift.

This development suggests that India is willing to adjust aspects of its relationship with Russia to bolster its strategic partnership with Washington, especially in light of China’s rising influence.

BANGLADESH BETWEEN THREE POWERS

Bangladesh’s foreign relations have long been influenced by its geography, economic needs, and security considerations. India, as its immediate neighbour and regional leader, has always played a central role in this dynamic -- from the 1971 Liberation War to current security cooperation.

However, the relationship has also been characterised by asymmetry, unresolved issues regarding water and borders, and periodic political tensions.

In the past two decades, China’s growing presence in Bangladesh's economic landscape has significantly changed the situation. Today, China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, a major investor in infrastructure, and a key supplier of defence equipment. Projects such as the Padma Bridge Rail Link, Payra Port, and various energy initiatives highlight China’s expanding influence.

For Bangladesh, Chinese financing is appealing because it tends to be fast, flexible, and often less politically conditional than funding from Western sources.

Meanwhile, the United States remains Bangladesh’s largest export market, particularly for garments. Washington's strategic interest in Bangladesh has increased as part of its broader Indo-Pacific strategy.

While concerns about democracy, labour rights, and governance shape US engagement, there is also a strong desire to prevent China from solidifying its influence in the Bay of Bengal.

This triangular dynamic -- India’s security concerns, China’s economic presence, and America’s strategic ambitions -- places Bangladesh in a delicate position. The country’s ability to maintain balanced relations with all three powers has been a hallmark of its diplomatic approach.

However, the growing partnership between India and the US, which is aimed explicitly at countering China, limits Bangladesh’s room for manoeuvring.

NAVIGATING A NARROWING STRATEGIC SPACE

Regardless of which party forms the next government, Bangladesh will face ongoing pressure from both India and the United States to limit its engagement with China. This pressure will appear in several ways:

- Security and defence: India and the US are likely to urge Bangladesh to diversify its military procurement away from Chinese suppliers and reduce reliance on Chinese technology in critical sectors.

- Infrastructure and connectivity: Washington and New Delhi may encourage Bangladesh to participate in alternative initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) or India-led connectivity corridors.

- Maritime strategy: The Bay of Bengal is becoming increasingly important strategically. China's involvement in ports like Chittagong and Payra will receive heightened scrutiny.

However, distancing itself from China carries significant risks.

Chinese financing is crucial for major infrastructure projects that are essential for economic growth. Chinese companies dominate key sectors such as power generation, telecommunications, and construction. Reducing these ties could slow development, disrupt supply chains, and decrease investment flows.

On the other hand, maintaining close relations with China may provoke diplomatic and economic pressure from India and the US. Therefore, Bangladesh's next government will need to adopt a more sophisticated approach to strategic balancing than ever before.

POLITICS AND THE POST‑ELECTION ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE

Bangladesh's internal political and economic conditions will significantly affect its foreign policy flexibility. The country is facing several pressing challenges:

- Political instability: Ongoing polarisation, doubts about electoral legitimacy, and weakened democratic institutions may undermine the government's ability to negotiate confidently with external powers.

- Economic stress: Foreign exchange shortages, rising import bills, and declining reserves have already put pressure on the economy. Bangladesh's reliance on external financing -- from China, multilateral organisations, or Western partners -- will increase its vulnerability to geopolitical pressure.

- Investor confidence: Political uncertainty and macroeconomic volatility may deter foreign investment at a time when Bangladesh urgently needs capital for infrastructure development, energy projects, and industrial diversification.

- Export dependence: The garment sector's heavy reliance on the US and EU markets means that Bangladesh cannot afford to have strained relations with its Western partners.

The next government will therefore face a dual challenge -- stabilising the domestic political environment while managing a stressed economy. Failure to address internal vulnerabilities could weaken Bangladesh's bargaining power on the international stage and might compel it to engage in reactive rather than strategic decision-making.

A REAL TEST FOR STRATEGIC COMPETENCE

Bangladesh is currently at a crucial turning point in geopolitics. The strengthening relationship between India and the US, driven by shared concerns about China, is reshaping the strategic landscape of South Asia. Once considered peripheral to great-power politics, Bangladesh is now central to the emerging Indo-Pacific order. This new significance presents both opportunities and challenges.

The next government must navigate this increasingly complex strategic environment with caution and diplomatic skill. It should work to maintain strong economic ties with China while also fostering constructive relationships with India and the United States. Additionally, stabilising domestic politics is essential for enhancing the country's international credibility. Economic reforms will also be critical to strengthen resilience in a competitive global environment.

Bangladesh's ability to maintain strategic autonomy will depend on how effectively it balances competing interests without alienating any major player. The period following the elections will significantly influence not only the country’s domestic course but also its position within the evolving geopolitical order of the Indo-Pacific.

[Sayeed Iftekhar Ahmed, PhD, teaches international relations at the School of Security and Global Studies in the American Public University System]