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Published : 08 Feb 2026, 01:55 AM
Every election in Dhaka carries its own memory. Of sweeps and shutouts, of streets that once decided outcomes before ballots were cast. Yet as campaigning enters its final stretch, the capital once again finds itself suspended between two possibilities -- an emphatic, one-sided verdict, or a rare moment of balance.
On the brink of the post-July Uprising parliamentary election, Dhaka again stands at the heart of the national contest -- not merely as the administrative capital, but as a political bellwether where power, memory and momentum collide.
Across the city’s 20 constituencies, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) remains the dominant force by history and organisation. Yet this time, the Jamaat-e-Islami -- alongside its new ally, the National Citizen Party (NCP) -- is pressing forward with renewed confidence, buoyed by a dramatically altered political landscape.
The question reverberating through campaign offices, tea stalls and voter conversations is a familiar one with unfamiliar urgency: can Jamaat and its allies finally break through in Dhaka -- or will the BNP reassert a dominance it last enjoyed decades ago?
A year and a half ago, these same parties stood shoulder to shoulder on the streets against the Awami League government. Today, they are rivals, calculating margins and reading the city’s shifting political mood.
Some voters believe the BNP is still best placed to sweep the capital. Others sense that Jamaat could secure a handful of seats -- something it has never managed in Dhaka’s electoral history.
Complicating the arithmetic further are three constituencies where BNP “rebel” candidates are in the race, threatening to fracture the party’s vote and reshape outcomes.
In total, 135 candidates are contesting across the 20 Dhaka seats this election. Senior leaders from the BNP, Jamaat, NCP, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Nagorik Oikya and the Revolutionary Workers Party are all in the fray.
The BNP has ceded two Dhaka seats to its joint-movement allies. Jamaat, meanwhile, has given up seven seats to its coalition partners.
Still, one historical fact looms large: Jamaat has never won a parliamentary seat in Dhaka.
A BRIEF HISTORY OF DHAKA’S BALLOTS
From the fifth to the eighth parliament after the 1990 uprising, Dhaka had 13 constituencies.
In both the 1991 and 2001 elections, the BNP won every single seat in the capital.
In June 1996, the Awami League secured seven seats, while the BNP won six.
By 2008, the number of Dhaka constituencies had expanded to 20. That year, candidates of the Awami League-led grand alliance swept all of them.
Since then, Dhaka has remained politically decisive -- and symbolically unforgiving.
IS BNP UNCHALLENGED IN NCP’S 6 SEATS
NCP candidates are contesting in six Dhaka seats: Dhaka-8, 9, 11, 18, 19 and 20.
A senior NCP leader told bdnews24.com the party is “optimistic about victory” in three constituencies: Dhaka-11, Dhaka-18 and Dhaka-20.
But assessments from within the Jamaat-NCP alliance are more cautious.
A senior Jamaat leader involved in campaign coordination said NCP’s Chief Coordinator Nasiruddin Patwary is unlikely to mount a serious challenge against BNP heavyweight Mirza Abbas in Dhaka-8.
The constituency -- comprising Motijheel, Paltan, Shahbagh and Shahjahanpur -- has 11 candidates. Abbas, a former mayor of undivided Dhaka, two-time MP and minister during the BNP-Jamaat four-party alliance government, remains deeply entrenched.
Members of Jamaat’s own election team admit there is “no real opportunity” to build strong resistance against him.
Mohammad Abdul Barek, chief coordinator for the BNP candidate, was blunt: “There is no real rival to Mirza Abbas in this seat. He is established as the people’s representative here.”
Still, Barek voiced apprehension: “From long experience, I know they will try election engineering. If the vote is not genuine, everything changes.”
At a rally on Saturday, Abbas echoed that concern: “If results are not declared within two hours -- or at most 12 -- then we will know something dishonest has happened.”
Jamaat Secretary General Mia Golam Porwar, however, turned the allegation back on the BNP, saying his party fears “engineering” from the other side.
FRAGMENTED CONTESTS AND FRAGILE MARGINS
In Dhaka-9, BNP candidate Habibur Rashid faces 11 rivals, including independent Tasnim Jara -- a former NCP member -- and NCP-Jamaat alliance candidate Mohammad Jabed Mia.
BNP leaders say Jara enjoys popularity in Sabujbagh and Khilgaon, potentially hurting Rashid. However, they expect Rashid to dominate Mugda and Manda.
Even Jamaat activists privately concede Jabed’s position is “not strong”.
A BNP student wing leader pointed to another variable: “There are still Awami League followers here. Their votes will decide the margin.”
The last MP of Dhaka-9 was Awami League leader Saber Hossain Chowdhury.
DHAKA-11: SYMBOLISM VERSUS STRUCTURE
Dhaka-11 pits BNP candidate MA Quayum against NCP convener Nahid Islam -- a prominent face of the July Uprising.
While Nahid enjoys symbolic popularity, local BNP activists insist he trails Quayum in electoral strength. Quayum himself expressed fears of manipulation.
Jamaat activists are openly campaigning for Nahid’s “Shapla Koli” symbol across Badda, Bhatara, Rampura and parts of Hatirjheel.
Among 10 candidates, Islami Andolan Bangladesh leader Fazlay Bari Masud is also seen as a potential spoiler.
SEATS SEEN AS ‘ONE-SIDED’
BNP leaders consider Dhaka-18, 19 and 20 largely secure.
In Dhaka-18, despite NCP’s Ariful Islam and Nagorik Oikya’s Mahmudur Rahman drawing some votes, BNP candidate SM Jahangir is widely viewed as unchallenged.
In Dhaka-19, BNP’s Dewan Mohammod Salahuddin faces NCP candidate Dilshana Parul. With the LDP also fielding a candidate, alliance votes are expected to split. BNP believes Salauddin, a former MP, is well placed.
Dhaka-20 sees BNP candidate Md Tamiz Uddin favoured over NCP’s Nabila Tasnid.
NCP liaison committee head Akram Hossain disputed this assessment, alleging administrative bias: “The BNP is campaigning freely in schools, colleges, mosques and madrasas. Black money is flooding the election. The Election Commission is silent.”
WHERE JAMAAT SEES TIGHT FIGHT
Jamaat believes it can mount strong challenges in four seats: Dhaka-7, 10, 12 and 15.
In Dhaka-7, wealthy Jamaat candidate Enayat Ullah -- a long-time Old Dhaka spice traders’ leader -- faces BNP’s Hamidur Rahman. A BNP “rebel” candidate Md Ishaq Sarker is also in the race, adding pressure.
Still, BNP activists say Ishaq’s 10,000–15,000 votes will not alter the outcome.
In Dhaka-10, Jamaat’s Jasimuddin Sarkar faces BNP’s Rabiul Alam Rabi. Jamaat believes women voters could shift the balance. BNP leaders say Rabi remains better accepted locally.
THE THREE SAIFULS OF DHAKA-12
Dhaka-12 features an unusual three-way contest between: Saiful Haque (Revolutionary Workers Party, BNP ally), Saiful Alam Nirob (expelled BNP rebel), and Saiful Alam Khan Milon (Jamaat).
BNP activists say Nirob leads in Tejgaon Industrial Zone, Haque in Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, while all three share votes in Moghbazar and Eskaton.
A youth leader close to Nirob suggested Jamaat could benefit from vote splitting.
Saiful Haque countered: “Jamaat has banners, but little visible work. They are campaigning quietly.”
Nirob’s coordinator Abu Sufian Dulal defended his candidate’s BNP credentials, saying: “He has not abandoned Ziaur Rahman’s ideology. He [believes in] Tarique Rahman.”
DHAKA-15: JAMAAT CHIEF UNDER SCRUTINY
In Dhaka-15, Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman faces BNP candidate Safiqul Islam Khan Milton.
BNP activists admit the contest is sensitive but believe internal unity will prevent defeat. Some voters suggest Awami League votes from the Kamal Ahmed Mojumder era could split.
A student linked to Islami Chhatra Shibir told bdnews24.com: “Milton will win here. Jamaat’s nationwide campaign will not translate into seats.”
10 SEATS BNP CONSIDERS SECURE
BNP leaders see little threat in Dhaka-1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 16 and 17.
Among them:
Dhaka-6 features Ishraque Hossain, son of former Dhaka mayor Sadeque Hossain Khoka.
Dhaka-16 fields former national football goalkeeper Aminul Haque.
Dhaka-17 sees BNP chairman Tarique himself contesting, with votes from Korail slum considered decisive.
Dhaka-13 and 14, however, remain areas of concern.
UNCERTAIN BATTLEGROUNDS
In Dhaka-13, BNP’s Bobby Hajjaj faces Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis chief Mamunul Haque. Islami Andolan has not fielded a candidate, potentially consolidating religious votes.
In Dhaka-14, BNP candidate Sanjida Islam Tuli -- sister of disappeared BNP leader Sajedul Islam Sumon -- faces Jamaat’s Mir Ahmad bin Quasem Arman and “rebel” candidate Syed Abu Bakar Siddique Shaju.
Arman is the son of executed Jamaat leader Mir Quasem Ali and was allegedly disappeared during the Awami League era.
BNP insiders concede Saju could emerge unexpectedly strong.
WHAT VOTERS ARE SAYING
In Dhaka-12’s Moghbazar, grocery shop owner Shafiqul Islam said: “There are many silent voters here. With three Saifuls, votes will split -- but overall, the BNP will get more seats.”
Political science student Nurullah Al Hadi predicted: “BNP will win about 12 seats in Dhaka. Jamaat will get at least six.”
In Mirpur’s Pirerbagh, fish trader Shamsu Mia said plainly: “I will vote for the [Weighing Scale]. People are saying it.”
Nearby, others declined to comment.
At a tea stall near Khandaker Market, one group remarked: “Many are selling religion for votes. Establishing Islam isn’t that simple.”
‘NOT YET TIME FOR JUDGEMENT’
Asked about the BNP’s prospects, Election Committee Vice-Chairman Shamsuzzaman Dudu said: “This is not the time for final assessment. Two days before the vote, we will be clearer.”
He insisted no party has mounted a real challenge to the BNP.
Jamaat’s Porwar echoed caution: “It is too early to comment. All efforts are continuing.”
For Dhaka, a city that has seen every promise before, the verdict now rests -- once again -- with its voters.
