Asia stocks bounce on dip buying, bonds lag behind

Asian stock markets eked out a rally on Tuesday and oil prices came off highs after Israel and Iran said they would halt attacks on each other for now, while ever-hopeful investors bought the latest dip in semiconductor stocks.

Analysts cautioned the bounce was narrowly based with 60% of the S&P 500 finishing in the red overnight even as the overall index edged up. Share futures for Wall Street and Europe were also lower in early trading.

Higher bond yields continued to test stretched equity valuations, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still badly restricted.

"Inflation remains sticky enough that 46 of 68 global central banks are overshooting targets, which helps explain why bond markets are repricing for tighter policy, and why long-duration assets, private credit, and several EM currencies are struggling," analysts at BofA said in a note.

"Our Global Breadth Rule shows nearly half of equity markets already overbought, led by Korea, Taiwan and Finland."

South Korea's share market climbed 3.4%, having sunk more than 8% on Monday after a run of spectacular gains left valuations stretched and retail investors with extended margin positions.

Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.9%, after losing 3.9% the previous session, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.5%.

Chinese blue chips added 0.4% as trade data showed exports rose 19.4% in May and imports climbed 27.4%, with both beating median forecasts. The strength shows China's success in finding new markets in the face of US tariffs and other trade hurdles, even as domestic demand struggles.

For Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both fell 0.4%, while FTSE futures dipped 0.2%.

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were little changed after edging higher overnight. The next big test for tech will be results from Oracle on Wednesday.

Priced for Rate Hikes

Apple shares failed to get any initial boost from a long-delayed AI overhaul of Siri, unveiled at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference.

ChatGPT-maker OpenAI confidentially filed for a US initial public offering on Monday, joining rival Anthropic in a trillion-dollar rush for equity financing.

Bond markets continued to struggle as the strong May US payrolls report pushed investors to price in more risk of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Data on US consumer prices due Wednesday are expected to show surging energy costs kept pushing headline inflation higher in May.

Futures imply around a 60% chance of a Fed rate rise as soon as October, and a quarter-point move is almost fully priced for December.

Two-year Treasury yields stood at 4.170%, having hit their highest since early 2025 at 4.201% overnight.

Markets are also fully priced for a quarter-point hike to 2.25% from the European Central Bank when it meets on Thursday, and see the key rate at 2.5% or 2.75% by year-end.

The surprising strength of US employment kept the dollar underpinned at 160.17 yen, just off an overnight top at 160.395. The next bull target is a 160.725 peak from April, though investors are wary a break could draw renewed intervention from Japanese authorities.

The euro was stuck at $1.1538, after hitting a nine-week low at $1.1500 overnight, while the pound GBP= edged up off a three-week trough to $1.3347.

In commodity markets, Brent crude eased 0.7% to $93.57 a barrel, after pushing as high as $98.00 overnight, while US crude CLc1 dipped 0.7% to $90.62 a barrel.

Gold was near flat at $4,334 an ounce, having touched a two-month trough at $4,268.39 on Monday.