BJP expects Muslim votes

The BJP is counting on increasing its support among Muslims in the ongoing parliament elections.

The party's prime minister candidate Narendra Modi, usually disliked by Muslims, is making a special effort by showcasing the 'progress' Muslims have made in his state Gujarat.

“In many states, Muslims are so poor they cannot even go for Hajj, but not in Gujarat, where Muslims are doing great in business,” he told a rally in north India recently.

Muslims, who constitute 13.4 percent of the 1.2 billion population, hold the key to victory in many of the 545 seats in the Lok Sabha.

A visit to Muslim-dominated areas of Old Delhi, once seat of Mughal Empire, makes it clear that the BJP is trying hard to win the confidence of the Muslims to deny the Congress the 'secular vote'.

Top leaders of both the parties had organised meetings with Muslim leaders before and during the polls, that is happening in nine phases between Apr 7 and May 12.

After Congress President Sonia Gandhi met Delhi Jame Masjid Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari, BJP Chairperson Rajnath Singh rushed to meet Muslim leaders like Maulana Kalbe Jawad and Khalid Rashid in Lucknow, capital of the country's most populous state Uttar Pradesh.

But many doubt whether that is good enough to win the confidence of Muslims, who resent the 2002 pogroms in Gujarat, when Narendra Modi was chief minister.

Momtaz Begum, who was visiting the Red Fort at New Delhi with her children, told bdnews24.com: “It’s difficult to say if BJP can win our confidence now, but it is trying to assume a secular character.”

BJP leader Amit Shah, however, rejected Muslim fears over Modi as ‘baseless’.

“You’ll see that the fear about Modi will go when he’ll be the prime minister.”

Shah is Modi's most trusted confidante in Gujarat, now leading the charge in Uttar Pradesh.

Poll statistics reveal BJP got only 2 percent Muslim votes in 1996 Lok Sabha polls but this was after Hindu zealots demolished the Babri Mosque in 1992.

BJP’s share of Muslim votes, however, rose to 6 percent in 1999 following Atal Bihari Vajpayee's leadership of the federal government. It touched the highest -- 7 percent -- in 2004 before declining to 4 percent in the 2009 polls.

Muslims account for 35 percent of the population in Assam, 28 percent in West Bengal, 18 percent in Uttar Pradesh, 16 percent in Bihar, 9 percent in Rajasthan and Maharashtra and 6 percent in Kerala.

Analysts say Muslims are the key factor in 22 parliament seats out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh.

Congress secured 38 percent of Muslim votes in 2009 parliamentary polls and formed government.

Historically Muslims extend their supports to Congress.

But like Left Front and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, different regional political parties are now bagging Muslim votes.

In UP they have been largely voting for lower-caste parties like Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party or Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). In Bihar, they have voted for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U) or parties led by his low caste rivals Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan.

After BJP declared Modi as its prime minister candidate, Nitish Kumar broke away from the NDA coalition led by BJP, primarily for fear of losing Muslim support.

In Delhi assembly election held in December last year, newly-formed Aam Aadmi Party secured many Muslim votes and was able to form government there.

A rickshaw-puller from Chandni Chowk, Muslim Ali, told bdnews24.com: “The bitter issues like communal violence have not got much importance this time. We want to go forward.”

“We want a poverty-free India. The party, which can ensure it, should be voted to power,” he added.

No wonder, the BJP is pitching for development and growth rather than its core plank Hindutva, paying only a very brief passing reference to the issue of Ram mandir construction in Ayodhya in its manifesto.

Even an otherwise polarising figure like Modi has distanced himself from remarks by Hindu hardliners like Praveen Togadia and Giriraj Singh.

Jawaharlal Nehru University student Sahid Yasmin said a party like Congress should be in power for a stable India.

She, however, admitted that the BJP was ahead of the Congress in the race this time because of the many failures of the ruling party.

Chandni Chowk’s residence Moulvi Ahmed Ullah told bdnews24.com: “We live in this area with Hindus and Sikhs. We don’t want from the core of our heart that any extreme communal party comes to power.”

That may cut both ways.

In some areas, Muslims may vote for Congress or other secular parties for fear of Hindu hardliners gaining an upper hand if BJP comes to power.

But in some areas where the BJP is already dominant, Muslims may vote for BJP, hoping the party moderates may control the hardliners due to compulsions of power.

(bdnews24.com Chief Political Correspondent Sumon Mahmud is now in India to report on the Lok Sabha election)