Clean image, popularity with female voters, BNP disconnect behind Ivy's victory: Analysts

Analysts see three reasons behind Selina Hayat Ivy getting the mandate to serve the Narayanganj City as its mayor for a second successive term, having helmed the civic bodies there for 13 years.

The three factors that worked in the ruling Awami League candidate's favour are - personal image, popularity with female voters, and lack of coordination in rival candidate's campaign, according to political analyst Mizanur Rahman Shelley and election analyst Abdul Alim.

A look at the results of some polling centres for women reveals that Ivy's popularity is far greater among the women than that of her main rival, the BNP's Sakhawat Hossain Khan.

Out of around 475,000 voters of the river port city, nearly 235,000 are women.

The election observers said the presence of female voters at the polling stations was larger than at any time.

Another analysis shows the BNP candidate received fewer votes than Ivy did in the areas controlled by leaders of his own party, himself included.

In the Islamia Fazil Madrasa centre near BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia's Adviser Taimur Alam Khandaker, who was the BNP-backed candidate in the 2011 election, Ivy got 837 votes against Sakhawat’s 670.

Taimur's brother Makhsudul Alam Khandaker Khorshed, a councillor candidate, bagged 1,231 votes in that centre.

Ivy became the first female mayor in Bangladesh by defeating another Awami League leader AKM Shamim Osman with huge margin of over 100,000 votes in the last city election. Shamim Osman was backed by many of the central leaders of the party in the non-partisan polls.

The Awami League officially nominated Ivy for this election, the first on party lines in any city. And Shamim Osman supported her on party orders.

The difference of votes between Ivy and her nearest rival Sakhawat is 80,000. But, Ivy got 5,000 votes fewer this time than she did in 2011.

Political analyst Shelley told bdnews24.com on Friday that the support for Ivy from all groups in her party and her personal image, as the daughter of Narayanganj's first municipality chairman Ali Ahmed Chunka, made the difference.

Her honesty, stance against terrorism, and acceptability among the general people also made a vote bank for her, according to Shelley. "These were added to the votes for the Awami League's 'boat' symbol," he said.

The former minister of HM Ershad's government, however, does not agree with the Awami League leaders' claim that the people's trust in the party's development work reflected in Narayanganj.

"Only development cannot have any special significance if it is not participatory. There were developments during the Pakistan and Ershad regimes, but those did not last long because those were not participatory.

"I don't think the voters in Narayanganj thought much about these (developments)."

Shelley saw the BNP's 'failure to unite' its local supporters behind Sakhawat as another reason for his defeat. In contrast, the Awami League moved centrally to see all its leaders and activists work for Ivy.

Abdul Alim, a director of Election Working Group (EWG), a platform of election observer organisations, put the comfortable win down to the positive image Ivy has had for 13 years and the special affinity between her and the female voters.

"Besides the Awami League’s vote bank, Ivy has a personal vote bank by virtue of her family, wider acceptability, her rapport with the public, and the goodwill for delivering on pledges," he said.

"Though she was a party candidate, the votes she received as an individual played a big role in her victory," he added.

In Alim’s view, it will be wrong to judge the Awami League and the BNP's popularity going only by the results of Narayanganj City polls.

But the election can be taken as an example of fair polls to replicate in the day ahead, he added.