Poll shows Brazil's Lula beating top right-wing rivals in 2026 vote

Tarcisio de Freitas is trailing Lula in both first-round and runoff scenarios

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva reacts during a family photo with ministers during a ministerial meeting at Granja do Torto official residence, in Brasilia, Brazil, Dec 17, 2025. REUTERS/Adriano Machado

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would beat all potential right-wing challengers in a 2026 runoff, including Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed on Thursday.

Markets have tracked polls closely since former President Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son sent Brazil's currency and equities sliding this month, as investors had bet on him backing a more market-friendly name such as Freitas.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula would have 48 percent support, compared with 21 percent for Flavio Bolsonaro and 15 percent for Freitas, the poll showed.

• If Freitas did not run, Lula would garner 48 percent versus the senator's 29 percent in a first round.

• Without Flavio on the ballot, Lula would score 49 percent against Freitas' 28 percent.

• Lula would defeat both Flavio (53 percent-41 percent) and Freitas (49 percent-45 percent) in a potential second-round runoff.

• The poll also showed approval of Lula at 48.8 percent, up from 48.6 percent in November, while disapproval was steady at 50.7 percent.

• Atlas surveyed 18,154 people between Dec 10 and 15. The poll has a margin of error of 1 percentage point in either direction.