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Published : 07 Apr 2026, 01:17 AM
Atlantic Fracture: The NATO Crisis
Hormuz breaking point: The US air campaign against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a fundamental split, as Europe refuses to participate in the military escalation.
Trump’s exit threat: Branding allies "cowards", President Donald Trump is "absolutely" considering a withdrawal, viewing European neutrality as a betrayal of the alliance.
The Rubio pivot: Once NATO’s strongest advocate, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has shifted his stance, now echoing the "one-way street" rhetoric and signalling a post-war re-examination of the treaty.
Geopolitical friction: Relations have been further soured by Trump’s engagement with Russia and the revival of his controversial ambitions to acquire Greenland, deepening the trust deficit with European capitals.
Resistance: Key allies -- including Spain, Italy, and the UK -- have closed their airspace and restricted base access, with PM Starmer firmly saying, "This is not our war."
The sovereign shift: Anticipating a US departure, European leaders are bypassing Washington to coordinate independent security summits and military autonomy ahead of the Ankara summit.
The transatlantic alliance that has underpinned European security for more than seven decades now faces an unprecedented crisis.
According to British publication The Economist, Donald Trump’s escalating anger over Europe’s refusal to support American operations in the Middle East -- particularly efforts to re-open the Strait of Hormuz -- has prompted European leaders to question whether the United States will remain in NATO.
If the alliance fractures, the consequences could reshape global security and the balance of power.
“The cowards, and we will remember!” Trump fumed in a social-media post on Mar 20, echoing his growing hostility towards allies.
He later admitted in interviews that he was “absolutely” considering leaving NATO, though he tempered the threat in an Apr 1 address.
The Economist notes that his Secretary of State Marco Rubio -- once a stalwart defender of the alliance -- has amplified these fears, calling NATO “a one-way street” and signalling that Washington may “re-examine that relationship” after the Iran conflict concludes.
European capitals, once reassured by Rubio’s past advocacy, now face a sense of foreboding.
The senator had co-sponsored a 2023 law preventing unilateral US withdrawal from NATO, requiring two-thirds Senate approval.
Yet as a senior figure in the administration, Rubio appears to have softened his stance, removing a key safeguard for allies.
“This is the worst moment that NATO has faced,” Ivo Daalder, former American ambassador to NATO, was quoted as saying.
The Economist reports that Daalder believes European refusal to assist US operations has weakened pro-NATO voices in Washington, leaving the alliance exposed.
European Resistance and Fractured Unity
Several European states have openly hindered American military operations in the Middle East.
Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has refused to meet the new 3.5 percent GDP defence target, closing Spanish bases and airspace to US forces.
France, though contributing fighter jets to protect the UAE and an aircraft carrier to defend Cyprus, still faces Trump’s criticism for being “very unhelpful”.
Britain initially blocked US base access, later allowing limited operations to shield neighbouring nations; Prime Minister Keir Starmer repeatedly insisted: “This is not our war.”
Italy reportedly denied access to some planes stationed in Sicily.
Kurt Volker, another former US ambassador to NATO, told The Economist that European responses, though “foolish”, are understandable: “They are responding emotionally against Donald Trump, not rationally, in accordance with their interest.”
Iran War Exposes NATO Fragility
The immediate cause of friction is America’s air campaign against Iran, undertaken alongside Israel.
Since Feb 28, Iran has effectively blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for a quarter of global seaborne oil, as well as significant gas and fertiliser shipments.
British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper warned that Iran is “trying to hold the global economy hostage”, while European leaders debated possible escort missions for shipping -- some envisioning France leading a multinational effort excluding the US, others pushing for America to spearhead it.
Trump, in his Apr 1 address, claimed Iran had been “completely decimated” and suggested the war could end even if the strait remained closed.
European diplomats counter that reopening the strait by force is “unrealistic” until ceasefires and negotiations are restored.
Transatlantic Tension Deepens
Trump has long flirted with leaving NATO but presented himself last year as its defender, demanding that allies raise defence spending to 5 percent of GDP.
Relations soured after he engaged with Russia and revived his controversial Greenland ambitions.
Now, American frustration over Iran has raised the spectre of withholding weapons destined for Ukraine, further straining trust.
One European diplomat in Washington admitted to The Economist, “I have spent the past five years telling people not to worry about Trump and NATO. Now I am genuinely quite worried about Trump and NATO.”
Preparing for the Worst
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is scheduled to visit Washington on Apr 8 to smooth tensions.
Meanwhile, Britain convened a 40-country video conference without US participation to coordinate political and economic pressure on Iran.
Yet a Finnish official cautions that efforts may already be “beyond the point” to influence Trump’s attitude.
European capitals are increasingly focused on strengthening their own military capacities, anticipating a future where they may have to uphold NATO’s core functions independently.
The Economist adds, with the alliance’s annual summit in Ankara approaching, Europe faces a stark choice: intensify efforts to bolster the European pillar of NATO or prepare to manage the alliance if the US abandons it entirely.
