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Can 750,000 overseas Bangladeshis tip the balance at the ballot box?

“I don’t think postal ballots will be a major factor in determining victory,” says election expert Abdul Alim

Will 750,000 postal votes in play sway the results?

Senior Correspondent

bdnews24.com

Published : 10 Jan 2026, 02:06 AM

Updated : 10 Jan 2026, 02:06 AM

For the first time in Bangladesh’s electoral history, expatriate citizens have signed up to vote via a mobile app, signalling a small technological leap with potentially big democratic implications.

Over 750,000 overseas Bangladeshis have now enrolled, joining a global diaspora of more than 12.5 million -- though this still represents just over six percent of those eligible abroad.

The Election Commission (EC) regards the milestone as a “success”, yet attention now turns to how many postal ballots will actually be cast.

Alongside expatriates, three categories of domestic voters can also register for postal ballots via the “Postal Vote BD” app: election officials, government employees working outside their constituencies, and voters in legal custody.

Postal ballots have already begun reaching registered overseas voters, who must cast their votes and return them promptly.

Voters will mark their preferred candidate on the postal ballot after checking constituency-based lists, names, and symbols on the digital platform.

Voting begins once symbols are assigned on Jan 21, after which ballots can be returned by post from the following day.

Registration snapshot:

• Total registered domestic and overseas voters: 1,533,683

• Male: 1,281,435, Female: 252,246

• Domestic postal voters: 761,141 (government employees outside their constituency, election officials, voters in legal custody)

• Expatriate voters: 772,542

• Considering 12.5 million overseas Bangladeshis, the registration rate is 6.18 percent

• Against a target of 5 million, the registration rate is 15.45 percent

EFFECT ON OUTCOMES

Feni-3 recorded the highest overseas registration, with nearly 16,000 voters, while 17 other constituencies have over 10,000 registered overseas voters. Significant numbers are present in many other constituencies.

Abdul Alim, member of the Electoral Reform Commission, said: “The total number of overseas Bangladesh voters is over 13 million. The EC aimed for around 5 million registrations. Since this is the first time registration and voting have been launched, the target was lower.

“Already, over 1.5 million people have registered, half of them within the country. That means 750,000 have registered overseas, which is very low.

Alim added that the highest constituency registration is around 16,000 and the lowest about 1,600. “I do not think postal ballots will become a major factor in deciding victory or defeat.”

Election analyst also believes the number of overseas postal voters in each constituency is unlikely to determine outcomes.

“The registered voters include both domestic and expatriate individuals. There is no guarantee that all will vote, and those who do may be spread across different constituencies,” he said.

Postal ballots for parliamentary and referendum elections have started being sent a week after the schedule was announced.

Voting begins once symbols are allocated on Jan 21 and must be returned quickly to reach the returning officer before election day.

Alim noted logistical challenges. “Postal ballots are not guaranteed to reach one side exclusively. There is also no certainty they will arrive on time or be returned promptly after voting. Therefore, I do not think postal ballots will have a major impact constituency by constituency.”

He, however, acknowledged the initiative’s broader significance. “The effort is substantial; at least it has provided a pilot. Globally, pilots often start small, in only a few countries.

“Here, the campaign targeted expatriates wherever they are, which is notable.”

EC SEES ‘SUCCESS’

The EC has expressed satisfaction with the response to postal voting.

Election Commissioner Md Anwarul Islam Sarker said the turnout in registration exceeded global benchmarks.

“For a first-time initiative, we find the response very encouraging. Globally, overseas voter registration through similar systems rarely exceeds 2 percent. We have crossed that mark,” he added.

With registration exceeding 6 percent, the commission expects at least 3 percent turnout in actual voting.

“In close contests, even small numbers matter. In some seats, victory is decided by a margin of five or 10 votes. In those cases, postal ballots can influence outcomes,” Sarker said.

Asked whether the current experience could lead to postal voting in local government elections, he said the matter would be reviewed after the polls.

“People learn from experience. Improvements come from identifying mistakes. After this election, the issue of postal voting in local polls may be considered.”

Electronic voting machines, introduced gradually from 2010, have been fully withdrawn this time. The future of IT-supported postal voting will now depend on how the system performs.

“Some prefer institutional memory, others prefer new approaches. Future commissions will decide how to proceed,” he said.

Constituency-wise highlights:

• Highest registration: Feni-3 – 16,093 voters

• Lowest registration: Bagerhat-3 – 1,595 voters

• More than 11,000 registrants: 14 constituencies

• More than 10,000 registrants: 4 constituencies

• More than 9,000 registrants: 9 constituencies

• More than 8,000 registrants: 10 constituencies

• More than 7,000 registrants: 11 constituencies

• More than 6,000 registrants: 21 constituencies

• More than 5,000 registrants: 46 constituencies

• Between 1,500 and 5,000 registrants: 185 constituencies

IT SYSTEM FACES CRITICISM

Prof Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at Dhaka University, described the registration of 750,000 expatriates as “very insignificant”.

He noted that most overseas Bangladeshis are eligible voters, but there was insufficient outreach to gain their trust, which explains the low registration rate.

He said, “Much more attention is needed from IT specialists to design and implement sustainable systems. Voting for both domestic and expatriate citizens must be technically verifiable.”

Prof Razzaque warned that the soft copies of ballot papers shared on social media compromise secrecy.

“Postal ballots sent by post in this way are outdated and slow. They cannot achieve the intended results. We need a trusted, web and mobile interface to ensure the votes cast reflect the voters’ genuine choices,” he said.

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