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According to US officials, Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready to conduct operation by 2027
Published : 14 Aug 2024, 07:05 PM
In a newly built drydock on China's Changxing Island Shipbuilding Base outside Shanghai, the world's largest amphibious assault ship has sprung from nothing to an imposing hull that experts say might launch as soon as 2025.
If that assessment derived from satellite photos proves correct, the construction of China’s first 076 Class assault ship – dubbed the “Yunan” class – will be yet another reminder of the breakneck speed of Beijing’s military buildup.
It is bringing one of the world’s largest warships into existence in less time than it currently takes US or European shipyards to refit a much smaller ageing frigate or destroyer.
It will also likely stoke the fears of those who believe Beijing is now preparing in earnest for a major conflict, most likely one sparked by a deliberate invasion of Taiwan.
According to US officials, Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be ready to conduct that operation by 2027 – a suggestion Beijing denies – but has not yet made a firm decision to launch military action.
Constructed in 2005, the Changxing Island Shipbuilding Base - owned by the government-run China State Shipbuilding Corporation – has been a hugely ambitious effort and is now in a third stage of expansion that has also seen it build China's third aircraft carrier – the “Fujian” – between 2015 and 2022.
That ship began its sea trials in May – but the speed with which the shipyard is now turning around landing vessels represents a dramatic uptick in warship construction.
Commercial satellite photos indicate that the drydock in which the new 076 Class is being built only opened in October as part of what appeared to be a dramatic new expansion of the port facilities.
They turn out both military and civilian vessels at a speed that now worries Beijing’s potential adversaries and rivals, particularly the United States – and could give it a ready edge in any conflict.
The latest imagery - provided by private satellite firm Maxar for the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies - suggest that it is roughly 263 meters long and 43 meters wide (867 by 142 feet) - slightly smaller than an aircraft carrier such as the USS Nimitz or Ford class, or China’s new Fujian – but notably bigger than the new USS America class equivalent assault ships.
Like the “America” class, the new 076 looks to be capable of carrying troops and landing craft as well as drones and combat jets. It would be able to flood the inside of its hull to launch an amphibious assault while potentially also conducting air operations with catapults and helicopters.
Since 2019, China has launched four such vessels of the slightly smaller 075 class, with two declared ready for combat over the last year and another four said to be on order.
That output rate is beginning to alarm US counterparts. In raw tonnage when it comes to warships, the US Navy remains considerably larger than its Chinese counterpart. In total, the US retains almost three million metric tons of warships of 1,000 tons or more, compared to barely a third of that for China.
That includes 10 nuclear aircraft carriers and their battle groups – all bigger and more powerful than China’s three carriers so far. Only Beijing’s fourth carrier, still under construction, is expected to be nuclear-powered, giving it much greater endurance.
The US also retains a much larger force of atomic-powered submarines, both ballistic missile-carrying variants capable of remaining unseen for months and smaller torpedo and cruise missile-carrying attack subs.
Still, when it comes to the sheer number of warships, China has now overtaken the US as the largest navy in the world, with 234 vessels over 1,000 tons compared to the Americans' 219, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. China also now has more combat logistics and support vessels than the U.S. military: 167 versus 126.
U.S. STRATEGISTS WORRIED
That is starting to worry US strategists.
While the US Navy is spread around the world, including two aircraft carriers now in the Middle East in the event of a conflict involving Israel and Iran, Beijing’s forces are largely focused on its immediate neighbourhood – and this would be even truer in a war.
Any rotation there would likely involve not just warships, but elements of China’s coastguard and maritime militia - from fishing boats to giant ferries used as troop ships.
What has those in Washington even more perturbed, however, is Beijing’s ability to build and repair vessels.
One recent unclassified slide released by US naval intelligence estimated that China’s total shipbuilding capacity was now more than 632 times that of the US.
U.S. officials warn that Beijing can call on dozens of shipyards larger and more effective than the notoriously troubled Huntingdon Ingalls facility in Newport News, Virginia, the largest US military shipyard.
When it comes to warships, Beijing is now outbuilding the US to a remarkable degree.
Between 2003 and 2023, China more than doubled its guided missile destroyer fleet to 42. Over the last 10 years, it has launched 23 new destroyers compared to only 11 built by the U.S. Since 2017, China has built eight guided missile cruisers while the U.S. completed none.
That naval production capacity is backed up by an even larger civilian shipbuilding sector.
In 1999, Chinese shipyards accounted for only five percent of merchant shipping tonnage globally each year. Now, that proportion stands at over 50 percent, with Chinese yards attracting almost 60 percent of new merchant ship orders last year.
That contrasts with the United States, which produces just 15-25 new merchant vessels every year, less than five percent of the global total.
China has also bitten into the dominance of Japanese and Korean shipyards, which once held over half the global market between them but, last year, only around 40 percent, according to trade data produced by the United Nations.
INDUSTRIAL REPAIR BATTLE
US commanders believe they still have a technical edge over China’s navy in a range of areas.
One recent set of war games run by the Center for Strategic and International Studies predicated on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan showed Beijing losing 52 major surface warships compared to between seven and 10 US equivalents.
Those war games, though, showed China much more able to take those losses than the US, both because of its significantly larger fleet and much greater abilities to carry out repairs.
Aside from limited facilities in Japan, which might well be vulnerable to Chinese attack, the US would need to get any seriously damaged warships back to either Hawaii or San Diego - longer journeys across the Pacific Ocean - for repair.
From next year, the US will begin trialing repairs of warships in allied Asian dockyards - most likely South Korea and Japan, although India’s shipbuilding facilities have also been touted as a potentially invaluable resource in any big conflict.
US commanders have also been paying particularly close attention to Ukraine’s war with Russian invaders, particularly its use of missiles and unmanned drones to sink much of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet while forcing much of the remainder to withdraw firmly from the war zone.
The Pentagon’s Project Replicator – announced last year – aims to mass-produce the latest unmanned systems in any major war with China. This would effectively build a parallel production pipeline capable of operating much faster than existing defence manufacturing facilities.
Such technology might redress the balance in the US favour – but Beijing is also investing in such systems, and would be fighting in its own backyard.
As retired US Navy Captain Sam Tangredi wrote in a US naval journal in January 2023, "The side with the most ships almost always wins."
The US is headed into uncharted territory in Southeast Asia, and Beijing is betting that overwhelming force of numbers might help it win any conflict - or even allow it to achieve its goals without firing a shot.
