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Published : 16 Jun 2026, 02:19 AM
The World Bank has projected Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 4.6 percent in the next fiscal year, signalling a more cautious outlook for the economy amid mounting external pressures.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects update released on Thursday -- the same day the finance minister presented the national budget in parliament -- the Washington-based global lender also warned that growth in the outgoing 2025–26 fiscal year could weaken further than previously expected, largely due to the economic fallout from the Iran war.
The new forecast is 1.9 percentage points lower than the growth ambition outlined by Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury in the proposed budget for 2026–27, where he projected a recovery-led expansion of the economy.
The revision also marks a downward adjustment from the World Bank’s own January forecast.
Khosru has set a growth target of 6.5 percent for the coming fiscal year despite persistent macroeconomic challenges.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has meanwhile estimated that the economy grew by 4.14 percent in provisional terms in 2025–26, while the final figure for 2024–25 stood at 3.49 percent.
By contrast, the World Bank now expects growth in 2025–26 to slow further to 3.8 percent, down from earlier projections of 4.6 percent in January and 4.8 percent in its October update.
For 2026–27, the bank’s forecast of 4.6 percent growth is also lower than its previous estimates of 6.1 percent and 6.3 percent in earlier revisions, reflecting a consistent downward trend in expectations.
The World Bank noted that its 2025–27 outlook remains below Bangladesh’s statistical baseline, with projected growth 0.34 percentage points lower than BBS’s provisional estimate.
The official target had been 5.25 percent after being revised down from 6.75 percent set by the ousted government, while the interim administration earlier budgeted for 5.5 percent growth.
The report also underscores wider global risks.
It warns that the Iran conflict is expected to weigh on the global economy, pulling worldwide growth down to 2.5 percent in 2026 -- its weakest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Global growth was 2.9 percent in 2025.
For South Asia, the World Bank projects growth of 6.3 percent in 2026, down from 7 percent in 2025, while India’s growth is forecast at 6.6 percent compared to 7.7 percent this year.
