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Published : 19 Jun 2026, 01:08 AM
Shifting Sails: Navigating a Giant
The billion milestone: Driven by full duty-free access, exports to China surged 16 percent to $742.5 million, putting a historic $1 billion mark within reach
Trade chasm: A staggering $17.3 billion trade deficit remains, with massive imports overshadowing Bangladesh's modest export earnings
The basket barrier: Experts warn that over-reliance on garments is failing, urging a pivot to products China actually demands
Premier pivot: Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s scheduled visit to Beijing sparks hopes of tripling export revenues within two years
Bangladesh's exports to China are showing fresh momentum, with shipments to the world's second-largest economy moving close to the $1 billion mark for the first time.
In the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025-26 (July-May), Bangladeshi exporters shipped goods worth $742.5 million to China, up 16 percent from the same period a year earlier.
The figure already exceeds the export earnings recorded in any previous full fiscal year.
During July-May of FY2024-25, exports to China stood at $641.4 million, while full-year earnings amounted to $694.5 million.
The highest export earnings from China previously came in FY2016-17, when Bangladesh exported goods worth $949.4 million.
Economists and exporters have welcomed the growth at a time when exports to several major markets remain under pressure.
They believe the June figures could push Bangladesh's exports to China close to the $1 billion milestone.
The development comes ahead of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's visit to China from Jun 23 to 26.
The trip will be his second foreign visit as prime minister, following a visit to Malaysia on Jun 21-22.
Mohd Khorshed Alam, president of the Bangladesh-China Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCCI), believes Bangladesh could triple exports to China to $3 billion within two years after the prime minister's visit.
"Exports to China have started increasing after full duty-free access was granted. We expect exports to reach close to $1 billion this fiscal year. Following the prime minister's visit, I hope exports will reach $3 billion within two years," he told bdnews24.com.
"However, both the public and private sectors will need to act. We must diversify export products, align production strategies with Chinese market demand, improve quality standards and strengthen trade-supportive policies and logistics."
Economist and Policy Exchange Bangladesh chairman Masrur Reaz echoed the view.
"While Bangladesh has built a strong position in Europe and North America, we have achieved very little in China's market of 1.5 billion people. Even after receiving full duty-free access, exports have not increased significantly," he told bdnews24.com.
"Our export basket still depends heavily on one or two products. China is unlikely to import large volumes of ready-made garments because it is largely self-sufficient in that sector. We need to export products that China actually demands."
Trade Imbalance Remains Wide
Although bilateral trade between Bangladesh and China has tripled over the past decade, it remains overwhelmingly dominated by imports.
Data from the National Board of Revenue and the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) show that while Bangladesh's annual exports to China have averaged around $700 million in recent years, imports from China have ranged between $17 billion and $19 billion.
During the first 10 months of FY2025-26 (July-April), Bangladesh imported goods worth $18 billion from China, compared with exports of only $672.6 million.
As a result, Bangladesh's trade deficit with China reached $17.327 billion during the period, accounting for more than three-quarters of the country's total trade deficit.
According to the latest Bangladesh Bank data, Bangladesh's overall trade deficit stood at $22.21 billion in the first 10 months of the outgoing fiscal year.
China has sought to help narrow the gap by gradually expanding duty-free access for Bangladeshi products.
In 2020, China granted duty-free access to 97 percent of Bangladeshi exports. The coverage expanded to 98 percent in 2022, including leather and leather goods. Another 383 product lines were added in 2023. Beijing extended duty-free access to all Bangladeshi exports from December last year under Bangladesh's least-developed-country status.
Despite these concessions, Bangladesh has struggled to fully capitalise on the opportunity.
Business leaders and economists attribute the shortfall to limited production capacity, lack of product diversification and insufficient preparation to compete effectively in the Chinese market.
Opportunity and Challenges
Asked whether the prime minister's visit could boost exports, Khorshed Alam said: "Absolutely. China's market of more than 1.4 billion consumers is now fully duty-free for Bangladeshi products. Beijing has opened the door to a historic opportunity."
"We cannot realistically eliminate the trade deficit entirely, but if the government and private sector work together, exports could reach $3 billion. That would reduce the deficit from $17 billion to around $14-15 billion, easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves and benefiting the economy."
He said attracting Chinese investment would be key to expanding exports.
"In northern Bangladesh, there are iron ore and coal deposits. Chinese investors could invest there, produce magnet fibres and export them back to China. Joint ventures are also possible."
"There is strong demand for magnetic materials in China. Even capturing a small share of that market could significantly boost exports. Most of our current exports to China are garments. China is not only a major global exporter of garments but is also self-sufficient. There is little benefit in focusing solely on apparel."
He urged greater attention to products such as leather and leather goods, footwear, jute and jute products, plastic goods, ceramics, crabs, freshwater prawns, dried foods, sesame, and seasonal fruits including mangoes and jackfruit.
"A business delegation will accompany the prime minister. An investment conference will be held in Beijing. We hope these issues will be discussed and positive outcomes will emerge."
Masrur Reaz said Bangladesh must better align its export basket with Chinese demand.
"The products China imports are largely absent from our export basket, or we are unable to supply them in sufficient quantities. As a result, there is limited demand for our exportable products."
"Bangladesh needs a coordinated, long-term strategy. We should identify unconventional but promising products and expand production and export capacity. Dedicated Bangladeshi product fairs should be organised across different Chinese provinces to strengthen branding."
"We also need to attract export-oriented Chinese investment. Goods produced in Bangladesh could then be exported back to China, improving export marketing. We must focus on new, non-traditional products and strengthen our preparedness and capacity to utilise the market access already available."
What Bangladesh Exports To China
EPB data show that exports to China during July-April of FY2025-26 included:
Bangladesh exported goods worth $694.5 million to China in FY2024-25, up 2.92 percent from the previous fiscal year.
101 Bangladeshi Firms Join China Expo
Bangladesh participated as the theme country at the 10th China-South Asia Expo and the 30th China Kunming Import and Export Fair, held from Jun 11 to 16 in Kunming, the capital of China's Yunnan Province.
The two exhibitions, organised at the Dianchi International Convention and Exhibition Centre, brought together 2,300 participants from 68 countries.
Bangladesh was represented by 175 delegates from 101 companies under the management of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), with support from the Bangladesh Consulate General in Kunming.
Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muqtadir addressed the opening ceremony, chaired by Yunnan Governor Wang Yubo.
Officials including China's vice commerce minister, Sri Lanka's commerce minister, Nepal's deputy speaker and the Maldives' trade minister also spoke.
According to a commerce ministry statement, Bangladesh's participation highlighted its growing role in regional economic cooperation and connectivity, while showcasing the country's economic progress, investment opportunities, export potential and industrial development.
The ministry said the event created opportunities to strengthen business ties between Bangladeshi and Chinese companies, explore new markets and build partnerships in trade, investment, technology and innovation.
BCCCI President Alam, who attended the exhibitions, said Bangladeshi products received a strong response from visitors.
"The response to Bangladeshi products in Kunming was very encouraging. I believe the prime minister's visit to China will bring positive outcomes," he told bdnews24.com.
