Can Islamist parties forge an electoral alliance or reach an understanding?

Islami Andolan’s Yunus Ahmad favours an electoral pact over an alliance, with one candidate per seat

The recent collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government, following the tumultuous July-August movement, has sparked a broad debate in political and public circles over the shifting balance of power in Bangladesh.

With the Awami League largely absent from the political arena, analysts are weighing whether this vacuum has created fresh opportunities for Islamist parties.

At the same time, a new polarisation is emerging ahead of the national parliamentary elections, driven by the unity-oriented politics of religion-based parties.

As these groups coalesce around shared ideological goals, their growing influence underscores a shift in the country’s electoral calculus, where ideology and strategic vote consolidation are becoming decisive factors.

In the last parliamentary elections, Jamaat-e-Islami managed to secure representation in the parliament independently, a feat that eluded other religious parties. Lacking the electoral strength to win on their own, they were compelled to align with major political forces such as the BNP and the Awami League to gain a foothold in parliament.

Meanwhile, uncertainty looms over whether the Awami League will be able to contest the next national parliamentary elections.

Amid this backdrop, Jamaat is distancing itself from the BNP and is now seeking to forge alliances with smaller religious parties, aiming to shift the power dynamics of the political scene.

At the same time, the Islami Andolan Bangladesh, a party that has consistently participated in both national and local elections during the Awami League’s tenure, is working to establish itself as a significant force in electoral politics.

As this realignment unfolds, the longstanding ideological divide between Jamaat-e-Islami and Qawmi-influenced parties—rooted in theological disagreements over Maududiism—is once again coming to the surface.

Debate is intensifying over whether this historical distance can be bridged or if the renewed engagement among religious factions is merely a tactical manoeuvre. Some observers suggest that these parties may, in reality, be negotiating with the BNP for parliamentary seats under the guise of forming an alliance with Jamaat.

Meanwhile, Maulana Yunus Ahmad, the secretary general of the Islami Andolan Bangladesh, sees a broader shift in public sentiment. Citing the anti-discrimination demands that emerged during the July Movement, he argues that the people are seeking “an alternative force to develop”.

Speaking to bdnews24.com, Yunus emphasised the importance of electoral cooperation, even in the absence of a formal alliance among Islamist parties.

“There will be one candidate from Islamic parties in one seat. We are approaching many parties. Many parties are approaching us. We will also approach other parties in the future.”

Discussions over a possible alliance among Islamist parties gained momentum after Aug 5, 2024 when Jamaat, long constrained by its banned status, began operating openly under its own banner. The move marked a departure from years of secrecy, as the party reasserted itself in political circles and engaged in dialogue with other religious factions.

Jamaat is also engaging in discussions with leaders of parties that have long stood on opposite sides of theological debates, signaling a pragmatic shift in its political strategy.

In a notable development, Jamaat leader Shafiqur Rahman, met with Maulana Syed Rezaul Karim, the leader of the Islami Andolan Bangladesh, in Charmonai, Barishal. Karim, who had previously blamed Jamaat for the BNP’s electoral setbacks, later stood before journalists and declared that the two parties would work together.

Six days after Shafiqur’s meeting in Charmonai, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir also met with Karim on Jan 27.

Following the discussions, the Islami Andolan Bangladesh and BNP reached an understanding to push for national elections after the completion of a set of minimal reforms. Both sides also agreed not to support any policies that would contradict Islamic Sharia.

WHAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A JAMAAT ALLIANCE?

In Bangladesh, the unity of religious parties has long been a subject of debate, marked by disagreements both among political factions and scholars. Despite multiple efforts to consolidate forces, parties such as Jamaat, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, and Bangladesh Khilafat Majlis have struggled to overcome key obstacles.

One significant point of contention stems from the Qawmi sect's disapproval of the theological principles espoused by Maulana Abul Ala Maududi, the founder of Jamaat. Many scholars within this faction have expressed strong discontent with Maududi's “Aqeedah,” or religious beliefs.

Due to these deep-rooted theological and political disagreements, many religious parties in Bangladesh remain hesitant to align themselves with Jamaat. Notably, organisations such as the Islami Andolan Bangladesh and the Bangladesh Nezam-e-Islam Party have refrained from endorsing any unity with Jamaat, a stance also shared by Hifazat-e Islam.

Jamaat's efforts to consolidate various Islamist factions into a single political front ahead of the upcoming national parliamentary elections have sparked both interest and division. According to speeches by Maulana Mamunul Haque, Amir of the Bangladesh Khilafat Majlis and leader of Hifazat-e Islam, there were indications that Hifazat, alongside several other parties and organisations, would consider joining forces with Jamaat.

The issue of unity among religious parties in Bangladesh appeared to be definitively settled with a statement from Allama Muhibullah Babunagri, the ameer of Hifazat.

In a speech delivered at Feni Mizan Maidan on Oct 25, 2024, Babunagri made it clear that his organisation would not align with Jamaat.

Babunagri's declaration was pointed and unequivocal, as he emphasised that Hifazat did not view Jamaat as a legitimate Islamic party. He criticised the party's vision, asserting: "We do not consider Jamaat-e-Islami an Islamic party. Jamaat does not want the Islam of Madina, they want to establish the Islam of Maududi."

The interim government’s reform agenda has extended to the electoral process, drawing competing demands from major political factions. The BNP, the country’s largest political party alonside the Awami League, has called for early elections following key reforms.

In contrast, Jamaat and the Anti-discrimination Student Movement—both instrumental in the previous government’s collapse—have advocated for elections only after a full implementation of reforms. The two groups are now working to establish a new political party.

Jamaat and the Islami Andolan have aligned themselves with the government’s broader reform proposals, particularly in their push for a proportional electoral system.

A government-appointed reform commission has recommended a shift to a bicameral legislature, with representation in the upper chamber determined by the percentage of votes each party receives nationwide.

If implemented before the next election, the proposed reforms could make religious parties a decisive factor in the country’s political landscape. A lower turnout among Awami League supporters could significantly boost these parties’ vote share.

Islamic parties, meanwhile, see an opportunity to strengthen their position. If they don't get assurances of the parliamentary seats through alliances, they are prepared to contest independently, seeking every possible vote. That push could, in turn, drive higher voter turnout.

Under such a system, even if the BNP secures an outright majority in the lower house, it could fall short in the upper chamber—making it difficult to push through major legislative decisions.

Mindful of this risk, the BNP—out of power for years—is willing to make concessions. Party leaders appear open to negotiating seat allocations if it means ensuring a workable balance of power in the new system.

The BNP has consistently opposed a proportional representation system, rejecting any effort to build consensus on the issue.

Still, the BNP has signaled a willingness to make strategic concessions. Officials suggest the party may agree to surrender a limited number of seats—but only in what they describe as the “national and larger interest.”

The Constitutional Reform Commission, one of several bodies established by the interim government, has been tasked with rebalancing power and preventing any ruling party from consolidating unchecked authority. The commission’s proposals aim to introduce structural changes that would limit the risk of authoritarian rule.

As part of its recommendations, the commission has put forward a plan for a bicameral parliament. The proposed lower house would consist of 400 seats, with 100 reserved for women, while the upper house would have 105 seats. Of these, five would be directly appointed by the president.

The proposal outlines a plan for a bicameral parliament in which the lower house would be directly elected, while seats in the upper house would be allocated based on the proportion of total votes each party receives. Under the plan, parties must secure at least 1 percent of the total votes cast to gain representation in the upper chamber.

Ali Riaz, head of the Reform Commission, emphasised the effort to ensure broad representation across both legislative bodies.

“To ensure that all are represented in these two houses, we have recommended creating a lower house on the basis of majority, but an upper house on proportional representation.”

The Electoral Reform Commission has proposed a constitutional amendment to establish an upper house of parliament with 100 seats, allocating them proportionally based on the votes each party receives. Under the proposal, a party must secure at least 3 percent of the total votes cast to gain representation in the chamber.

Past election results suggest that a proportional voting system could give Jamaat a foothold in the upper house, even if the party secures fewer seats in the lower chamber.

If the Awami League is barred from voting, the Islami Andolan’s share of the vote could rise, mirroring past trends based on the ballots cast.

Both Jamaat and the Islami Andolan have advocated for a bicameral parliament and proportional representation in both chambers.

Islami Andolan’s Yunus criticised the BNP’s approach to governance, saying the party consistently raises the idea of a national government when in power.

“However, if the parliamentary elections are held on a proportional basis, the national government becomes like this.”

Yunus argued that a proportional system would help curb the influence of illicit funds in politics. “This reduces the flow of black money,” he said. “That is why we always want it.”

With the BNP opposing a proportional system, the likelihood of its implementation remains low. Acknowledging this, Khilafat Majlis leader Quader has proposed an electoral compromise.

Quader, whose party was once aligned with the BNP, believes religious parties could achieve better results by uniting behind a single candidate in each constituency.

Parwar said the party has already implemented a proportional voting system internally and is actively promoting the approach. “I am telling everyone this. We are campaigning. We are holding opinion-exchange meetings so that voting is done in this manner in the upcoming elections,” he said.

Pointing to the precedent of the caretaker government, Parwar noted that when Jamaat first proposed the idea, both the Awami League and BNP opposed it. “But at some point, everyone agreed,” he said. “It was also included in the constitution.”

“We believe that this formulation (proportional voting) will be accepted by the nation one day,” said Parwar, expressing confidence in the long-term viability of the system.

When asked if the proportional system would benefit religious parties in the upper house, Electoral Reform Commission member Abdul Alim explained: “We have discussed the current system for the Lower House. In the case of the Upper House, we have proposed a proportional voting system. This way, everyone will be represented.”

In response to the same question, Nazmul Ahsan Kalimullah, chairman of the election monitoring organisation Janipop, referenced the results of the last two elections held under the caretaker government.

He told bdnews24.com, “After that, the level of ‘Islamic radicalisation’ increased a lot. Jamaat used to have a platform of 5-6 percent. Now that is not the case.”

Commenting on Jamaat's increasing influence, Kalim Ullah noted that the party has become the most well-organised since the interim government assumed power.

“They have appointed more people in all areas, including administration and education,” he said. “They will be the ones responsible in the upcoming elections.”

Kalim Ullah highlighted Jamaat's discipline and organisation, noting it stands out among the four main political parties. He added that other Islamic parties are learning from its example. “Moreover, a new group of students is emerging, similar to Erdogan's AK Party in Turkey,” he said.

When asked if proportional representation would provide additional advantages to Islamic parties, Kalim Ullah responded: "The Islami Andolan is one of its supporters. They were a party in the south earlier, but their influence grew throughout the country during the Awami League era."