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Published : 21 Apr 2026, 07:13 PM
The International Monetary Fund’s latest projections indicate that Bangladesh’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to marginally exceed India’s in 2026.
The estimates mark a brief reversal in South Asia’s economic standings before India regains its lead in subsequent years, according to data cited by Scroll.in, a prominent digital-only news outlet in India.
In its April 2026 edition of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF estimates Bangladesh’s per capita GDP at current prices to be $2,911 in 2026, compared with India’s $2,812.
Per capita GDP measures the average economic output per person and is calculated by dividing a country’s total GDP by its population, offering a broad indicator of average income levels.
The Scroll cited IMF data showing that while Bangladesh is projected to edge ahead in 2026, India had already moved slightly in front in 2025, with per capita income of $2,675 against Bangladesh’s $2,635.
Bangladesh, however, had maintained a lead over India in 2023 and 2024.
The trajectory is expected to shift again from 2027, when India’s per capita GDP is forecast at $3,074, compared with Bangladesh’s $3,048.
The IMF projects India will remain ahead of Bangladesh in per capita terms at least through 2031.
The Scroll reported, for broader context, the IMF says the average per capita GDP in emerging market and developing economies is around $7,500, while the global average stands at approximately $15,600, placing both South Asian economies well below global benchmarks.
India’s overall economy is projected to reach $4.1 trillion in 2026, significantly larger than Bangladesh’s estimated $510 billion, underscoring the scale gap between the two economies despite close per capita figures.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, typically released twice a year, assesses global economic trends and provides medium-term projections.
In its latest report, the IMF said global growth faces mounting uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions, including the war in West Asia.
“Over the past year, headwinds from higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty have been offset by tailwinds from technology-related investment; accommodative financial conditions, including a weaker US dollar; and fiscal and monetary policy support,” the IMF said, as quoted by Scroll.in.
It added that the conflict in West Asia poses a “significant counterforce” to these stabilising factors, particularly through disruptions in commodity markets, inflation expectations and financial conditions.
The IMF projects global growth at 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, slightly below the estimated 3.4 percent recorded in 2024–25.
