Bangladesh gear up for do-or-die clash against New Zealand

A loss will spell elimination for the Tigers, even before their final match. A win for the Black Caps will seal their spot in the semi-finals

When Bangladesh coach Phil Simmons sat down for his press conference at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Sunday evening, several pathways out of the Champions Trophy group stages still lay ahead for the Tigers. By the time the team wrapped up their practice session later that night, the odds of progress grew significantly more difficult. India's comfortable win over Pakistan in Dubai meant that Monday's clash against New Zealand is a must-win for Bangladesh. A loss will spell elimination -- even before their final match.

While the Tigers look to keep their nerves at bay, the match represents a golden opportunity for New Zealand. A win would secure a semi-final berth for the champions of the tournament's 2002 edition.

The crucial Group A encounter is scheduled to begin at 3pm Bangladesh time at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium.

In previous tournaments, a knockout format was in place, but that has changed this time. Yet, the fates of Bangladesh and Pakistan are inextricably tied. If Bangladesh lose, Pakistan will be eliminated too.

Pakistan is hosting an ICC tournament for the first time in 29 years. But the hosts are now staring at elimination, having lost both of their opening matches.

Bangladesh enter the match as underdogs, facing a much stronger opponent in the Black Caps. After opening their campaign in Dubai with a defeat to India, Bangladesh will now play their first match in Pakistan.

Meanwhile, New Zealand have been in Pakistan for nearly three weeks, dominating the Tri-Nation Series and defeating Afghanistan in a warm-up match. In the Champions Trophy opener, they cruised to a convincing win over Pakistan. Having acclimatised to the conditions, New Zealand’s performance is peaking.

Struggling with low confidence and a weakened lineup, Bangladesh face an uphill battle to keep their hopes alive. However, coach Simmons is trying to lift the team's spirits.

"All the games in this tournament are pressure games. These are the top-eight teams in the world, and you expect every game to be hard," Simmons said. "They [New Zealand] are definitely playing well but tomorrow is a new day. We will try to make sure that they don't play as well as they have been playing."

For Bangladesh, hope lies in the city and the stadium itself, which proved to be a happy hunting ground for the Tigers as they completed a sweep of the two-match Test series against Pakistan here in August last year. Simmons believes the positive memories from that match could motivate the team.

"I hope it does [inspire the team]. To come into Pakistan and beat Pakistan is not an easy thing. I hope it has a significant bearing on how they think about this ground."

In the first Test of that series, both teams put up big totals in the first innings, but runs were harder to come by later. The most recent ODI series in April 2023 saw a batting-friendly pitch, with Pakistan amassing 288 and 336 runs in different matches. This time, the pitch is expected to be similarly conducive for batters.

In Bangladesh’s first match, the batsmen struggled. While the pitch wasn’t ideal for batting, losing five wickets for just 36 runs left little room for recovery. For the match against New Zealand, Simmons is hoping for a strong performance from the top order. His target for the team is to score over 300 runs. Even that might not be enough, as England failed to defend 351 runs against Australia in Lahore on Saturday.

There might be a change in Bangladesh's batting lineup. If fit, Mahmudullah is likely to return to the playing XI. His return would provide much-needed relief for the team, as he has scored fifties in his last four matches. The team will need to decide whether to bring Mahmudullah in for a top-order player or drop Mushfiqur Rahim from the middle order.

Changes are also expected in the bowling department. Nahid Rana, whose omission from the side in the first match raised eyebrows, is set to return. Six months ago, the young pacer set the cricketing world alight with a fiery spell on this ground.

New Zealand, excelling in nearly every facet, are taking no chances. Known for their professionalism, New Zealand captain Mitchell Santner has expressed great respect for the Bangladesh team. He singled out players like Towhid Hridoy, Jaker Ali, Mahmudullah, and Mehidy Hasan Miraz, for praise while also stressing caution against Bangladesh's pace attack.

New Zealand’s respect for Bangladesh is clear, and now it’s up to Shanto and his men to rise to the challenge. If they fail, Thursday’s game against Pakistan match will only be a dead rubber.