Which seat for BNP scion Tarique in the party stronghold? A toss-up between Bogura-6 and Bogura-7

After years pulling the levers from exile, the party’s acting chief says he will run. In the party’s heartland, supporters want him on the ballot where the Zia family has never lost

BNP’s Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman.

For almost 20 years Tarique Rahman has been the BNP’s most influential figure never to face a ballot paper despite pulling the levers from exile in London. Asked in an early-October interview with BBC Bangla if he would stand in next general election, the de facto party chief replied without hedging: “Yes, In shaa Allah (God willing).”

Where, then?

BNP has yet to announce his constituency. Discussions with senior party figures suggest he is most likely to choose Bogura, his late father former president Ziaur Rahman’s birthplace, a shrine of sorts for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party.

His mother, the three-time former prime minister Khaleda Zia, has treated its twin seats, Bogura-6 (Sadar) and Bogura-7 (Gabtali-Shahjahanpur), like family silver since first winning there in 1991. She has never been beaten there.

‘MAKE IT BOGURA-7’

Which one Tarique, the acting chairman, might pick remains open. At street level the message is blunter: many rank-and-file BNP activists want him to choose Bogura-7.

Of the last dozen elections there, the BNP has taken six (Khaleda five times), with Jatiya Party claiming three, Awami League two, and an independent one with BNP’s backing.

Their hope is clear: he should run from here. Party Chairperson Khaleda has often kept Bogura-6 and vacated Bogura-7, four times in all.

In Bogura-7, Moudud Ahmed won the 2008 by-election once; Helaluzzaman Talukder Lalu, a member of the party chairperson’s Advisory Council, won three times (1991, June 1996 and 2001).

“The acting chairman will contest from Bogura-7,” said former MP Lalu. “We’re campaigning for him non-stop. I’ve asked Madam [Khaleda] too.”

‘GREEN SIGNAL’ PHONE CALLS

District leaders said 22 hopefuls from Bogura’s seven seats met at the BNP’s central office in Dhaka on Oct 11, with Tarique joining virtually from London. He heard from aspirants and directed them to “work with whoever gets the party's endorsement” in the coming election.

District BNP President Md Rezaul Karim Badsha told bdnews24.com they "gladly accepted" the direction. “Bhaiya (Tarique is called by grassroots organisers) held the virtual meeting in a superb environment. We all said we’ll work together for whoever gets the nomination. Three days later, five leaders received green-signal calls and were told to work in the field for the sheaf of paddy,” he said.

Participants said the calls went to Rafiqul Islam (Bogura-1: Sariakandi-Sonatola), Mir Shahe Alam (Bogura-2: Shibganj), Majid Talukder (Bogura-3: Adamdighi-Dupchanchia), Mosharraf Hossain (Bogura-4: Kahalu-Nandigram) and GM Siraj (Bogura-5).

Nothing was said about Bogura-6 (Sadar) and Bogura-7 (Gabtali-Shahjahanpur). Local leaders took the hint, fuelling speculations that Khaleda will keep Bogura-6 and Tarique will run in Bogura-7. Khaleda is member No. 1 and Tarique No. 2 of the district BNP committee.

Acting district General Secretary Md Mosharraf Hossain was more forthright. “Five of us, including myself, received the green signal from Bhaiya. I didn’t ask where he would run from. He could run from anywhere in Bangladesh.

"But we want him in Bogura Sadar or Gabtali. He is Bogura’s son and knows its problems first-hand. He will be the prime minister of tomorrow, so an ancestral seat in Bogura befits him.”

GRASSROOTS MOOD

There was a twist in 2018. Khaleda was barred from running for parliament due to a prison sentence and many BNP aspirants faced similar barriers. The party named multiple candidates tactically in some seats.

In Bogura-7, it picked Morshed Milton, the Upazila BNP president for Gabtali, but the Election Commission cancelled his nomination. The BNP then threw its weight behind independent Rezaul Karim Bablu, who won.

Milton said, “We are working in the field for Bhaiya, asking for votes for the sheaf of paddy in his name. It will be Bogura’s, and especially Gabtali’s, pride if tomorrow’s prime minister contests from here.”

Enamul Haque Nutan, Gabtali Upazila BNP general secretary, said: “We’re knocking on every door for Bhaiya. From people’s interest, it seems other candidates will lose their (electoral) deposits.”

On the streets, Jasim Uddin, a three-wheeler driver from Mahishaban, shrugs as if the outcome is obvious. The Zia family “has always predominated here”, he says.

If voting is fair, “someone from that family will likely be a candidate”. He has heard Tarique will stand and believes that with a proper election BNP would win by a big margin.

Abdul Hamid, a farmer from Sonaray, and Bablu Talukder of Bagbari, shared similar sentiments.

RIVALS IN A FLUX

The opposition’s chessboard has shifted since the fall of Sheikh Hasina government on Aug 5, 2024 fall.

The Jatiya Party, once competitive here, has scarcely been seen for 15 months. District President and former MP Shariful Islam Zinnah and General Secretary and former MP Nurul Islam Omar have largely stayed out of sight and face cases.

Omar said, “We don’t know anything yet. The party hasn’t informed us of its plans.” Jinnah did not answer calls.

The Jamaat-e-Islami has moved first, naming Golam Rabbani, a vice-president of the Bangladesh Labour Welfare Federation, for Bogura-7. He is campaigning across both Upazilas.

For Bogura-6 (Sadar), Jamaat named city chapter President Abidur Rahman Sohel, who said: “Even if Bogura is called a BNP stronghold, it is not what it used to be. Much has changed. Our membership has grown, our outreach has grown.”

The National Citizen Party (NCP) is yet to nominate a candidate in Bogura, but promises a full slate next month. District Coordinator Sakib Mahadi said, “We’ve tasked Rafia Sultana to recommend a nominee for Gabtali. I’m looking after Bogura Sadar. The party will announce nominees for all seven seats next month.”

THE ARITHMETIC, THE HISTORY?

Bogura-7 lists 512,258 voters -- 257,273 men and 254,983 women -- according to the 12th parliamentary election schedule.

1973: Awami League’s Mostafizur Rahman Patal won.

1979: After Zia founded the BNP in 1978, BNP’s Sirajul Haque Talukder took the seat.

1986 and 1988: BNP did not contest; Jatiya Party’s Aminul Islam Sarkar Pintu won both times.

1991: Khaleda won, and again in Feb 1996, June 1996, 2001 and 2008, always by large margins.

After Khaleda vacated the seat in 2008, Moudud Ahmed won the by-polls; Helaluzzaman Talukder Lalu won the other three by-elections (excluding Feb 1996).

2014: Jatiya Party’s Advocate Altaf Hossain became MP.

2018: Independent Rezaul Karim Bablu, backed by BNP, won.

2024: Awami League’s Mostafa Alam Nannu was elected to the 12th parliament.