No escape for Bangladeshis as plains and peaks sizzle in searing heat

It will get hotter unless something miraculous happens. People will suffer, and livestock will perish, a former Met office director warns

Despite over a month of unprecedented temperatures, this season's highs have not broken Bangladesh's all-time records. Yet, 70-year-old Mustafizur Rahman from Rajshahi finds searing temperatures almost unliveable.

While this season's highest temperature hit 43.8 degrees Celsius in Jashore on Apr 30, ranking as the third highest in the nation's history, Mustafizur recalls even hotter days.

The second highest temperature of 44 degrees Celsius was recorded in Bogura on Apr 21, 1989.

The highest temperature ever recorded was 45.1 degrees Celsius in Rajshahi on May 18, 1972, shortly after independence.

Reflecting on the scorching heat of that year, Rajshahi lawyer Mostafizur recalled that he had never experienced such extreme temperatures before.

He also mentioned that 1979 was another exceptionally hot year, marked by a prolonged drought in the Rajshahi region with no rainfall for a long time.

"It wasn't as hot back then; it would rain every two or three days, bringing some relief with cooler air. But now, with road widening projects cutting down trees, the heat seems to intensify. It's been consistently hot for so long that even the walls don't cool down at night; they feel warm to the touch."

The Rajshahi resident said, "I only go out when I have to. The air feels scorching, often lingering until around 10pm. In the past, every house had ponds outside, but they've all been filled in now. Shops have taken the place of front gardens."

The heatwave started on Mar 31 this summer and lasted 37 consecutive days through to May 6.

According to meteorologist AKM Nazmul Haque, Bangladesh had previously seen a 26-day heatwave from Apr 5-Apr 30, 2014, a 25-day heatwave from Apr 6-Apr 30, 2016, and a 23-day heatwave from Apr 13-May 5, 2023.

Nasrin Begum, a sexagenarian residing in Jashore's Palbari, said never before had she encountered such an extended period without rain in her life.

She reminisced about a time when lush greenery provided shade and cool breezes, making the heat more tolerable.

The situation has now drastically changed.

Reflecting on her childhood, Nasrin shared, "We used to rush outdoors to play when it rained. The atmosphere was invigorating, and the heat wasn't as oppressive. I enjoyed playing with clay. But nowadays, with fewer trees around, the scorching sun leaves me feeling dizzy."

HEAT STRIKES MOUNTAINS TOO

The Chattogram Hill Tracts region, known for its rolling lush green hills and cooler temperatures, is experiencing an unprecedented heatwave this year.

In April 2023, Rangamati - one of the three hill districts - saw an average temperature of 35.7 degrees Celsius. But this year it soared to 37 degrees Celsius. a significant rise from the typical high of around 33 degrees Celsius.

Mid-April brought scorching heat, with the mercury in Rangamati hitting 40 degrees Celsius on several consecutive days, while neighbouring Bandarban district peaked at 38.8 degrees Celsius this season.

Rangamati did experience temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius earlier, but it is unusual for them to persistently stay above 37 degrees Celsius like this year.

Looking at data from the past 30 years, the highest recorded temperature in Rangamati was 41.5 degrees Celsius in 2014.

However, there has not been a single year where temperatures remained above 37 degrees Celsius for such a long period.

TOO HOT TO HANDLE

Niki Marma, a postgraduate student at Jagannath University in Dhaka, has been spending an extended vacation in Khagrachhari’s Laxmichhari since celebrating Sangrai, the New Year of the tribal communities.

He told http://bdnews24.com that the heat now is more intense than it was five years ago. "The calendar may say it's summer, but nature seems to disagree. The conditions are harsh, particularly for those working outdoors, with many suffering significantly. The fear of heatstroke is limiting their ability to work. Frequent power outages have made the situation worse," he remarked.

Niki highlighted a recent increase in the plantation of teak trees, a tropical hardwood tree, over the past five years, coupled with deforestation in the hills, contributing to the rise in temperatures.

In the past, workers could seek shade provided by large trees during hot weather, but with trees being cut down in the name of development, it is harder to escape the heat while working, he added.

Rimel Chakma, a teacher at Simanto Prohori Ideal Junior Secondary School in Rangamati's Langadu Upazila, said that the heat was not as intense a decade ago.

Due to the lack of rainfall since Apr 11, there has been a water shortage, he said.

"Perhaps the temperature was higher before, but we didn't feel it much due to the breeze. Now, with fewer trees, there's less wind. Many students are skipping class due to the heat, with only 20-30 percent attending. Parents are hesitant to send them. With no electricity, it's impossible to sleep indoors."

Riken Chakma, a farmer from the same area, said that the heat has been increasing for the past two to three years, but he had never experienced such extreme heat in his 45 years of life.

"People are falling ill due to the heat, and children are crying. I can't work outdoors; I'm stuck at home. It's too hot to venture outside. We never experienced such heat in our childhood; this is the first time."

WHY SO HOT

In the current season, the heatwave started in the country on Mar 31. This is the first time in the history of the country that the heatwave went on for 37 consecutive days.

April is the hottest month in Bangladesh, with the 'normal' average maximum temperature for this month is supposed to be 33.2 degrees Celsius.

But this time the average maximum temperature recorded in April is 36.2 degrees Celsius. And the average maximum temperature in April 2023 was 35.17 degrees Celsius.

Meteorologist Abul Kalam Mallik told bdnews24.com that they fixed the average 'normal' temperature by considering the 30-year average weather condition or climate from 1981 to 2010.

“Every April, an average daily temperature is obtained, averaged over the entire month. Thus, the average temperature of April for 30 years is calculated as the average. The average temperature recorded this April is 3 degrees above normal.”

Abul Kalam Mallick thinks that due to global warming and various man-made reasons, the temperature of the region, including Bangladesh, is increasing.

He said, "Earlier the temperature was higher in the western part of Bangladesh. Gradually, it is increasing in the whole country. During this period our country is warm, but the climate and weather characteristics are changing, due to which it is getting hotter. Temperatures have been rising since the 1980s, now the range has increased."

On Apr 30, Jashore recorded the highest temperature in the country at 43.8 degrees Celsius, which is the third highest temperature since independence. In April last year, the temperature reached 41.8 degrees Celsius, the rest of the days that season it was between 36 and 40 degrees.

Jashore is expected to see a 'normal' maximum temperature of 35.6 degrees Celsius in April, according to the Meteorological Department. But this time it has reached 38.5 degrees Celsius, compared to 37.5 degrees Celsius in April last year.

In Chuadanga, the temperature was above 40 degrees from April 16 for the rest of the month. The previous year, from April 13 to 20, the temperature rose from 41 to 42.8 degrees. The rest of the time it was below 40 degrees.

According to the Meteorological Department, Chuadanga sees a 'normal' maximum temperature of 36.3 degrees Celsius in April, but this time it came to 39.2 degrees, where it was in the previous year 38 degrees Celsius.

Samarendra Karmakar, former director of the Meteorological Department, told bdnews24.com that the feeling of heat is increasing due to the long heatwave this season.

"(In 1972) even though Rajshahi had the highest temperature (45.1 degrees), there were occasional rains and thunderstorms. A thunderstorm cools the situation. This is not the case now. Because it has not rained for a long time. The temperature may rise every day, but it would not happen if it rained for a couple of days.”

Samarendra said that in 2014 and 1995 there were heatwaves in the country for a long time, but the difficult situation like this did not come.

“In 1979 there was also a drought situation, there was no rain for a long time. But this time the amount of rainless days is the highest. Temperatures have risen by 7 degrees Celsius or more in the last three decades.”

He blames increasing population density, climate change and various human activities as the reason for increasing temperature day by day.

Samarendra said, "Now the number of people and big buildings has increased in the cities,, but water bodies has decreased. Due to urbanisation, the average temperature in Dhaka city is 2-4 degrees higher than other areas. AC, generators are used - where will their heat go? It stays on the surface.

"Earlier there were more trees, now they are gone. Crops are being reduced and urbanisation is taking hold; canals and bills are gone. As a result the temperature is rising. Rainfall will also decrease, as temperatures change the atmosphere. The rains have moved towards Qatar, Saudi Arabia, where it never rains - there have been floods."

Professor AKM Saiful Islam of BUET Water and Flood Management Institute told bdnews24.com that El Nino is active in the world this year; It is normal for the weather to be abnormal at times. However, the way waterbodies and forests have decreased along with urbanisation is having a big impact.

“If there were more trees, the temperature would have dropped.”

Referring to the topic of warming, Professor Saiful said, "The world is gradually warming up, because carbon dioxide is increasing. Due to these reasons, the temperature is rising everywhere from the village.”

He sees the responsibility of industrialised countries heavily behind climate change.

"Those who are victims should be supported by those countries."

DECLINING FORESTS

According to the Department of Forest, the government agency responsible for the care of forests and forest lands, there were a total of 1.88 million hectares of forest land in 2020, of which 116,328 hectares were encroached upon.

To maintain a country's natural environment, at least 25 percent of its area should be forested. However, the Environment, Forest and Climate Change Minister Saber Hossain Chowdhury has stated that only 15.58 percent of Bangladesh's total area is covered with forest land.

According to data from the World Resources Institute-operated platform Global Forest Watch, from 2001 to 2023, Bangladesh has lost approximately 246,000 hectares of forested area, a 13 percent decrease compared to before, with the largest reduction occurring in 2017 at nearly 28,328 hectares.

Research indicates that in 2010, Bangladesh had more than 2 million hectares of natural forest, accounting for 16 percent of the total land area, which has been decreasing annually. Just in 2023 alone, the forest area decreased by about 17,806 hectares.

If this vast area of forest had not been destroyed, at least 75 megatonnes of CO2 emissions could have been prevented.

According to Forest Watch's research, the most significant decrease in forested area between 2001 and 2023 occurred in Chattogram, with a loss of nearly 231,000 hectares, accounting for 94 percent of the total reduction; followed by Sylhet with 8,366 hectares, 5,657 hectares in Rangpur, 323 hectares in Rajshahi, 203 hectares in Khulna, and about 99 hectares in Barishal.

Over the past 20 years, 76 percent of the forested area lost in the Chattogram region was in Bandarban and Rangamati, with Bandarban alone losing 84,900 hectares. Additionally, Rangamati lost about 54,879 hectares, Khagrachhari 24,500 hectares, Chattogram 9,350 hectares, and Cox's Bazar 9,220 hectares.

Among the countries experiencing forest loss, Bangladesh ranks third. The top country is Suriname in South America, with a loss of about 251,893 hectares, followed by Malawi in Africa, which lost 246,895 hectares of forest land.

In April of the current year, Forest Watch issued warnings that 22,445 places in Bangladesh could see tree felling, with concerns that about 255 hectares of forested areas could be cleared. Specifically, from Apr 10 to Apr 17, warnings were issued for 4,595 locations, potentially leading to the clearance of 53 hectares of forest.

WHAT LIES AHEAD

Continuing on the current path, Bangladesh may soon face a severe crisis.

Professor Saiful voiced concerns about ongoing environmental degradation: "There are no signs of pollution abating or efforts to protect our trees. Pollution levels—air and water—are on the rise. I’m uncertain if the damage to Dhaka can be reversed."

Samarendra, former director of the Meteorological Department, warned that prolonged heatwaves could become more frequent if current trends persist.

"It will get even hotter unless a miracle occurs. There's no way out. The impact will devastate not only people but also livestock. Kites and vultures have already disappeared, unable to withstand the rising temperatures."

He emphasised the need for planned urbanization, tree planting, and the revival of defunct water bodies to restore normal weather patterns. "Thick trees absorb more carbon dioxide. We must preserve crop land and reduce the usage of heat-emitting power generators in Dhaka."

He also proposed making tree felling a punishable offense.

Professor Adil Muhammad Khan from the Urban and Regional Planning Department at Jahangirnagar University described the extreme stress the city has faced over recent decades.

"Our buildings now not only generate but also retain heat. It’s crucial to preserve what’s green and expand green spaces. Trees should be planted around homes, along sidewalks, and even on rooftops wherever possible."

"To ensure a viable future, we must replace concrete with greenery and restore water bodies. Otherwise, we face even more dreadful years ahead," he added.

Professor Saiful suggested that expanding and decentralising the city could reduce the influx of people to Dhaka, thus moderating temperatures.

"We could promote rooftop gardens and green cities. Unlike other countries, urban development in Bangladesh is highly unplanned. Protecting canals and planting trees can help keep temperatures at a tolerable level."

He concluded, "We must give other cities the same priority as Dhaka to prevent them from suffering similar fates. Building regulations should consider local temperature conditions.

[Writing in English by Arshi Fatiha Quazi and Osham-ul-Sufian Talukder]