Can citizens find respite with power cuts on the cards in scorching heat of May, June?

Citizens may find brief sanctuary from sweltering afternoons, only to face the prospect of rolling blackouts when aging transmission lines—and surging demand—push the grid to its limits, warns the PDB chief

April gently ushered in summer, draping the nation in a mild heatwave that foreshadowed intense days ahead with predictions of mercury soaring to punishing heights as Boishakh heralded the onset of Bengali summer.

Although the heat remained oppressive, it lacked the severity experienced during last year's scorching spell.

Boishakhi festivities unfolded smoothly this year, largely untouched by power outages. Even during the demanding days of Ramadan preceding the celebrations, citizens enjoyed relatively uninterrupted electricity; the thrum of generators and the hum of fans never faltered for long.

To preemptively tackle the potential energy crunch, Power Advisor Fouzul Kabir Khan convened a meeting with ministry officials before Ramadan. His caution was particularly aimed at February, a critical period for irrigating crop fields.

He highlighted a looming possibility—a shortfall of approximately 1,400MW between electricity supply and rising summer demand, possibly prompting widespread "load shedding", or rolling outages.

The interim government confidently asserts its readiness for the anticipated summer spike in electricity use. According to Fouzul, any unavoidable power cuts would now prioritise Dhaka, a departure from previous norms that typically burdened rural areas first.

"Power demand during the peak summer and irrigation months is projected to hit around 18,000MW, with air conditioning alone accounting for roughly 6,000MW," Fouzul explained. "We could potentially see load shedding between 700MW and 1,400MW for various reasons."

Despite expectations of blistering temperatures in May and June, officials remain committed to minimising hardships caused by power disruptions. Efforts to offset loadshedding risks are already underway, but mechanical failures and unforeseen circumstances might still elevate power outages by up to 1,000MW.

On Apr 20 last year, the highest temperature in the country reached 40°C.

This April, however, temperatures have yet to reach that level.

Although mild heatwaves have swept across several regions during the month, there have also been a few rounds of rainfall.

As temperatures rise, so does electricity demand.

During last year’s intense heatwave, demand climbed to 18,000MW.

This year, the Power Division anticipates demand may reach 18,500MW or slightly higher.

Md Rezaul Karim, chairman of the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)—the government’s top operational authority in the power sector—told bdnews24.com: “No matter how high the demand goes, we have the capacity to meet it.

“So, we don’t expect to impose load shedding even during extreme heat.

He added, “Many technical factors, however, come into play, including weaknesses in transmission lines.

“For these reasons, some load shedding might occur, but we will try our best to get through this summer without scheduled outages.”

On Apr 30, 2020, Bangladesh recorded its highest-ever electricity production at 16,477MW while peak demand reached 17,000MW—resulting in nearly 500MW of shortfall managed through load shedding.

In contrast, last year’s peak periods saw shortages ranging from 2,000 to 3,000 MW, causing prolonged outages across both villages and cities.

As per the most recent government figures, the nation’s overall electricity generation capability—including captive units and renewable sources—has now reached 30,999MW.

A total of 48.1 million connections exist across the country, ensuring universal access to electricity.

Of these, six million households rely on solar power.

HOW COMFORTABLE IS THE SITUATION?

In terms of government preparedness and environmental conditions, residents of Dhaka are generally finding the power situation more manageable this year.

The scenario, however, remains uneven across the country—many rural areas continue to suffer long power cuts during the day.

In several parts of Dhaka, electricity has gone off once or twice a day over recent weeks, usually returning within 30 to 60 minutes.

This is a notable improvement from last year when power cuts would occur three to four times a day.

Last year, unbearable load-shedding during the extreme heat caused immense suffering.

Rehena Begum, a resident of Joypurhat town in the northern region, said the power situation this year has been considerably better than the previous year.

“There hasn’t been a single power cut during the day,” she added. “But last year, we would have no electricity from the evening until 11pm. Sometimes, it would even go off during the day.”

Nazmun Nahar from Belabo in Narsingdi district, however, said the situation in her area has worsened compared with last year.

“When the power goes out, it doesn’t return even after an hour,” she told bdnews24.com.

Jakir Hossain, a resident of a union in suburban Noakhali, said power cuts have become more frequent over the past week, but the situation is “not as bad as last year”.

“Now it goes two or three times a day but usually comes back within an hour,” he added. “Last year, we used to have power only 12 hours out of 24.”

Abdur Rashid from Dhanbari Upazila in Tangail said he has not faced major trouble from load shedding so far this summer. “Last year, as temperatures rose, load shedding became more frequent—four to five times a day, with hours before the power came back.

“This year, when power does go out, it returns in less than an hour,” he added.

COMPARATIVE SCENARIO

Data from the Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) shows that at 1:00am on Apr 21, 2024, electricity generation stood at 14,288 MW while demand reached 15,300MW—resulting in 966MW of load shedding.

During that time, gas-based power plants supplied 7,821MW, liquid fuel provided 1,655MW, coal-fired plants contributed 3,729 MW, hydropower added 30MW, and wind energy supplied 16MW.

No electricity came from India’s Adani Power Limited. The temperature was high, and both rural and urban areas experienced frequent power cuts, causing widespread discomfort.

One year later, on the same day in 2025 at 1:00am, generation increased slightly to 14,420MW against a demand of 14,650 MW. Load shedding stood at 220MW—76 percent less than the previous year.

In March and April last year, people were severely affected by repeated power outages.

This year, both the heat and the power situation have improved.

On Friday, the highest temperature recorded in the country was 39°C in Rajshahi while Dhaka registered a maximum of 34.6°C, according to the Met Office.

Exactly a year earlier, the highest temperature was 41.6°C nationwide, with Dhaka reaching 39.2°C.

According to figures recorded at 9:00pm on Thursday—the final working day of the week and considered a peak evening hour—nationwide electricity demand stood at 16,050MW.

The supply was 15,867 MW, creating a shortfall of 175MW, which was managed through load shedding.

At that hour, generation came from the following sources:

>> 5,989MW from gas-based plants

>> 3,626MW from liquid fuel

>> 3,873MW from coal

>> 40MW from hydropower

>> 20MW from wind energy

In terms of imported electricity, Bangladesh received:

>> 915MW via the line in Kushtia’s Bheramara

>> 38MW through the Tripura–Cumilla line

>> 1,366MW from Adani Power’s Jharkhand plant

Md Zahurul Islam, member (Generation) of the Power Development Board (PDB), told bdnews24.com, “This year, demand may reach up to 18,000MW, as per forecasts.

“We have both the capacity and preparations to meet it.”

“Power generation from gas-based plants is the most cost-effective,” he added. “That’s why we’re planning to maximise output from gas. Over 6,000MW will be produced from gas this year. Gradually, coal and liquid fuel-based generation will be scaled up.”

On possible outages, Zahurul said if pressure on the system increases, technical faults could lead to load shedding of around 1,000MW or slightly more.

“But such scenarios are not predictable. We’re aiming to avoid any load shedding at all,” he added.

[Writing in English by Syed Mahmud Onindo and Sheikh Fariha Bristy]