Brexit deal marathon heads to the finish line

Britain and the European Union appeared close to clinching a long-elusive trade agreement on Wednesday, raising hopes that the estranged allies were now set to avoid a turbulent economic rupture on New Year's Day.

A reporter with Britain's Daily Mail said a deal had already been done, and rumours flew that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson would make an announcement on Wednesday evening.

But there was no official confirmation from either side that the months of tortuous negotiations had reached a conclusion.

A source at the EU's executive Commission said talks were still under way - though in their "final stages" - and one EU official cautioned against excluding the risk of a "no deal" scenario on Jan. 1, saying: "It could still go either way."

A British government source was also cautious, saying: "Negotiations are ongoing."

European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier gestures as he speaks with Ambassador Michael Clauss, Permanent Representative of Germany to the EU, during a meeting of the Committee of the Permanent Representatives of the Governments of the Member States to the European Union (COREPER) in Brussels, Belgium December 22, 2020. John Thys/Pool via REUTERS

Still, three diplomatic sources in the bloc told Reuters that member states had started to prepare their procedure to implement any deal from Jan. 1, if one was agreed.

Since formally leaving the EU on Jan. 31, the United Kingdom has been negotiating a free trade deal with the 27-member bloc in an attempt to ease its exit from the EU's single market and customs union at the end of this year.

An accord would ensure that the goods trade that makes up half of annual EU-UK commerce, worth nearly a trillion dollars in all, remains free of tariffs and quotas.

One senior EU diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a provisional application of the deal with effect from Jan. 1 would need to be approved by member states because there was not enough time for the European Parliament to ratify it.

British Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick said two significant issues - fishing and competition - still remained to be resolved and that there had not been sufficient progress for a deal.

However, a French official told Reuters that the British had made "huge concessions" in negotiations over the past 48 hours, mostly on access to fishing in its waters.

The European Commission declined to comment.

Sterling jumped more than 1.1% against the dollar on perceived prospects of a deal while bond yields rose, and prices fell, in Britain, Europe and the United States.

DEAL TIME?

The United Kingdom casts off into the unknown on Dec. 31 after a stormy 48-year liaison with the Franco-German-led project that sought to bind the ruined nations of post-World War Two Europe into a global power.

Trucks queue on the A16 highway between Eurotunnel road access and Oye Plage, northern France, as Britain is set to leave the European Union's orbit in about two weeks, December 18, 2020. Reuters

The scale of potential Brexit disruption has been laid bare since France closed its borders to Britain for 48 hours citing a new coronavirus variant, stranding thousands of furious European truckers in southern England and disrupting food supplies.

Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin said the gap on one of the most emotive issues - how much fish EU boats could catch in British waters - was still wide.

But he told the national broadcaster RTE: "I think, given the progress that has been made, that there should be a deal ... A 'no-deal' would be an appalling shock to the economic system on top of COVID-19."

Ultimately, Johnson, who is grappling with both an accelerating COVID-19 epidemic and a border crisis at Dover, Europe's busiest truck port, will have to decide if the narrow deal on offer is worth signing up to.

Walking away might elicit applause from many Brexit supporters at home but would trigger severe trade disruption and generate still more acrimony for the mountain of talks on bilateral relations that still lie ahead.

"There's still the same serious areas of disagreement, whether that's on fisheries or the level playing field," Jenrick told Sky News. "But at the moment there isn't sufficient progress."

The "level playing field" is trade jargon for ensuring fair competition. EU leaders have long feared that after Brexit, the United Kingdom could ease regulation to undercut competitors and thus gouge EU market share. Enforcement is a key issue.

The two sides are also haggling over just how much EU fishing boats can catch in Britain's waters: essentially how many sole, sand eels and mackerel boats from EU member states can haul in per year, and when and how to renew such agreements.