Who leads Peru? Power struggle creates worst political crisis in decades

Peru plunged into the deepest political crisis in at least three decades Tuesday, with both the president and the vice president claiming to be the country’s rightful leader, and Congress closed and surrounded by riot police.

Anatoly Kurmanaev and Andrea ZarateThe New York Times
Published : 2 Oct 2019, 12:00 PM
Updated : 2 Oct 2019, 12:00 PM

Peru’s dysfunctional and corruption-ridden political system has courted crisis for years, with three of its past presidents under investigation and one dead after shooting himself during his arrest. But matters came to a head when the current president, Martín Vizcarra, confronted the conservative forces controlling Congress and accused them of stonewalling his efforts to fight corruption and pass political reform.

On Monday afternoon, Vizcarra invoked a constitutional provision that allows him to dissolve Congress and to call new parliamentary elections. Congress responded by suspending him and swearing in Vice President Mercedes Aráoz as the acting head of state.

Peru awoke Tuesday to find the national government in flux. In downtown Lima, the capital, police blocked traffic, leaving streets unusually empty and lined with shuttered stores. While some Peruvians celebrated Vizcarra’s decision as a much overdue purge of the corrupt elites, others saw in the drastic move a reminder of Peru’s despotic past.

Here’s what you need to know to understand this deep-rooted crisis that will shape the future of South America’s fastest-growing economy.

Why did the president suspend Congress?

Vizcarra claims the opposition, which controls Congress, has repeatedly blocked his attempts to clean up Peruvian politics and pass much-needed reforms.

The last straw for Vizcarra came Monday, when he asked Congress for a vote of confidence to change the system for appointing judges to the country’s highest court, the Constitutional Tribunal. This is the court that, among other things, arbitrates disputes between the president and Congress.

Lawmakers gave him the vote of confidence, but also went ahead and picked a constitutional judge of their choosing: The cousin of the head of Congress.

But this showdown with Congress was likely only a matter of time, said Carlos Meléndez, a Peruvian expert at the Diego Portales University in Santiago, Chile.

Vizcarra, a regional politician turned vice president, is a relative outsider in Lima’s power circles. He took power last year when, facing corruption charges, the president, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, stepped down.

Although his anti-corruption platform has been popular with Peruvians, and Congress is widely reviled as venal, Vizcarra lacks an electoral mandate and a strong party. His party occupies only five seats among the country’s 130 lawmakers.

His conservative opponents, led by the 54 lawmakers from the party of Kuczynski’s presidential rival, Keiko Fujimori, hold the majority of the seats.

Can he do that?

The Peruvian Constitution says the president can dissolve Congress if it twice denies his Cabinet a vote of confidence.

But whether Vizcarra’s actions met that standard depends on whose interpretation of the law you accept.

Over the past year, Vizcarra asked for that vote three times, using a constitutional mechanism to package reform proposals as a vote of confidence in his Cabinet. In all instances, Congress approved his Cabinet but ignored his proposals.

On Monday, Vizcarra argued that Congress’ sleight of hand constituted a de facto vote of no confidence, giving him the right to shut down the legislature and call new elections.

“In spirit, the Congress had very definitely denied confidence to two Cabinets; by the exact letter of the law, probably it had not,” said Cynthia McClintock, a political-science professor at the George Washington University.

Because the legality of Vizcarra’s move is uncertain, leaving open the question of whether Congress has been dissolved, it is also unclear whether it had the power to suspend Vizcarra and swear in his vice president, Aráoz. Peru now has a constitutional chicken and egg problem, said Michael Baney, risk analyst at consultancy WorldAware.

“If the dissolution of Congress was legal, then it voting to strip Vizcarra of power was illegal, since it was no longer even in session,” he said. “Of course, the inverse is also true: If Vizcarra’s dissolution of Congress was illegal, then Congress was indeed in session and thus had the power to strip Vizcarra of his power.”

So what comes next?

Peru’s federal register Tuesday published the date for new parliamentary elections: They are scheduled for Jan. 26.

Vizcarra published photos Monday night of himself surrounded by Peru’s top generals, to show he has the army’s support. And manifestations of support for him erupted in various cities across the country Monday, with smiling protesters jumping and shouting, “Yes we could,” after the president read the dissolution order in a televised address. The police obeyed his order and surrounded Congress with riot shields to prevent most lawmakers from entering Tuesday.

Congress, however, is not giving up. A caretaker commission of representatives who by law manage the body while it is dissolved holed up in the legislative palace Tuesday and threatened to make Vizcarra’s 12-month suspension permanent, which could, in theory, trigger new presidential elections.

The acting head of state appointed by Congress, Aráoz, vowed Tuesday to take the country’s constitutional crisis to the Organisation of American States.

Analysts say the resolution of the crisis is likely to fall to Peru’s courts, but even that scenario is uncertain. The main question is, which court? The struggle over appointments to Peru’s Constitutional Tribunal is precisely what set off the current crisis.

How are Peruvians taking this?

Riot police blocked traffic to downtown Lima on Tuesday and many businesses along the main avenues stayed closed.

The markets have largely shrugged off the crisis. Peruvian currency, bonds and stock market recovered most of their initial losses Tuesday, as investors banked on both political camps continuing the business-friendly policies that have fueled Peru’s remarkable economic growth for the past decade.

The general mood in Lima’s middle-class districts Tuesday was a combination of joy at the prospect of breaking the political stalemate and uncertainty. Monday’s demonstrations by mostly young Peruvians in support of Vizcarra had been replaced by a tense calm.

To many Peruvians, particularly the young and the left-leaning, Vizcarra’s move is a chance to wipe the slate clean and finally reform the corrupt political system, which allowed the country’s traditional political parties to divvy up power and economic patronage at the expense of the country’s development for decades.

A less vocal section of Peruvians, however, has expressed concern about repeating the mistakes of 1992, when the country last faced a constitutional crisis. Back then, another political outsider, an agronomist descendant of Japanese immigrants, Alberto Fujimori — the father of the current opposition leader, Keiko Fujimori — dissolved the Congress with a similar discourse of national rebirth.

Fujimori then proceeded to rule with an iron fist, dismantling courts, staffing institutions with loyalists and committing gross human rights violations in his quest to stamp out dissent. His daughter’s party is still the largest force in Congress, epitomising in its opponents’ eyes the political decay that her father ostensibly came to power to combat.

OK, so what are the broader repercussions here?

Analysts warn that Peru’s political paralysis could soon begin to wear down the country’s steady economic growth, which has been fuelled by mining and infrastructure investment. Peru’s 3.9% economic growth forecast this year by the International Monetary Fund is a sign of financial health on a continent plagued by stagnation, stock market runs and outright collapse in nearby Venezuela.

However, Peru’s basic economic model will likely remain untouched, regardless of which contender for the presidency comes out ahead.

“There are no signs at present that the favourable regulatory environment for the extractive sector, or the treatment of ongoing operational projects, will be adversely affected,” said Diego Moya-Ocampos, a political risk analyst with IHS Markit in London.

Peru’s foreign policy is also unlikely to change significantly. Both Vizcarra and Fujimori’s party have taken a tough stance against the government of Venezuela, whose economic collapse has triggered the biggest geopolitical crisis in the region in decades.

But a breakdown of the constitutional order triggered by this week’s events could come to haunt the country’s political centre in the next elections, said Abhijit Surya, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“The latest developments significantly heighten the risk that a radical, anti-establishment candidate will win the 2021 presidential elections,” he wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.

© 2019 New York Times News Service