Sliding in the polls, Erdogan kicks up a new storm over the Bosporus

The unpredictable roller coaster that has become Turkish politics was on full display this past week after 104 retired admirals publicly challenged President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in an open letter — and 10 of them ended up in jail, accused of plotting a coup.

It was no accident that the episode came as Erdogan finds himself in the midst one of the most intense political passages of his career, as the worsening pandemic and economy have left the president sliding in the opinion polls even as he amasses more powers.

To inspire the party faithful, Erdogan has returned again to herald one of his favourite grand ideas: to carve a canal, through Istanbul, from the Black Sea to the Marmara Sea to open a new shipping route parallel to the narrow Bosporus.

For now, the use of those natural waterways is governed by the Montreux Convention, an international treaty forged in 1936. Alongside his support for the canal construction project, Erdogan has signalled that he could dispense with the treaty. Alarm was not long in following.

Under the treaty, Turkey agreed to free passage of civilian and trade vessels but a strict control of warships, especially of outside powers, which has held the peace in the region.

Among the first to object strongly were Turkey’s own retired admirals, who last weekend put their names to an open letter warning that the Montreux Convention was an important founding document for Turkey’s security and sovereignty and should not be put up for debate.

The admirals are far from the only opponents of the canal. Others include the popular mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, along with environmentalists, ecologists and urban planners.

But the admirals raised particular ire from Erdogan, whose government pounced swiftly.

Ten of the signatories were detained on Monday, and another four were not jailed in view of their advanced years. Erdogan accused them of plotting a coup, a toxic allegation after four years of thousands of detentions and purges since the last failed coup.

Most analysts said that Erdogan and his advisers knew the impossibility of changing the Montreux Convention, but that the veteran politician is using the issue to kick up a storm.

“It is the government’s way of lobbying for the canal,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations.

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