Germany without Merkel, unthinkable: she says, think again

Chancellor Angela Merkel has been a seemingly invincible figure in German politics. In office for 13 years, she has been Europe’s most powerful leader, a presence so synonymous with stability that Germans call her Mutti, or Mother. So it was a familiar sight on Monday to see her live on television, until she asked Germans to do something far less familiar, and “get ready for the time after me.”

The chancellor said she would step down as leader of her conservative party in December and would not seek re-election in 2021. That means Merkel may remain on the political scene for months to come. But few observers believe she could hang on until the end of her term, speculating that new elections could be held as early as next year.

The chancellor’s decision makes clear that neither she nor her country are immune to the forces that have reordered politics across the Continent: the cratering of the political centre; the rise of populist forces; the blowback from the migration crisis; and a redrawing of the political fault lines away from the historical left-right divide toward a battle between liberal pro-European values and their nationalist polar opposite.

Speculation had grown for months about Merkel’s exit from the political stage, so the announcement was no surprise, but it still came as a shock. It underscored the new fragility of German politics and the great uncertainty for a Europe without Merkel at the helm.

“Germany has been a cradle of political stability over the last decade, but this now looks to be over,” said Stefan Koopman, an economist at Rabobank.

Merkel’s announcement came hours after her party recorded the worst election results since 1966 in the western state of Hesse, and two weeks after her conservative allies in Bavaria received a similar blow.

Merkel’s retreat, analysts say, could mark the beginning of a new era not just for Europe’s biggest country but for the Continent itself.

It could leave Germany more unstable and less able to take the lead in Europe at a time when leadership is badly needed on an array of topics — from Britain’s imminent departure from the European Union to Italy’s controversial budget plans.

© 2018 New York Times News Service