Experts warn against dropping guard as virus cases trend upwards in Bangladesh

COVID-19 infection rates have begun to surge again in Bangladesh, stoking concerns from the health bosses.

A fresh wave of coronavirus cases could sweep over Bangladesh unless immediate steps are taken to stifle the spread of the infection, experts have warned.

While the number of daily infections appeared to be on a downward trajectory from Nov 30 to the first week of February, active cases have been steadily rising from Feb 14.

On Wednesday, single-day cases topped 1,000 for the first time in two months as the tally of infections rose to 553,105. The rate of infection has also crossed 5 percent in March, having remained below 3 percent from Jan 18, data from the health directorate showed.

Experts believe laxity in the enforcement of preventative measures coupled with a reluctance to adhere to them, alongside the resumption of tourism and social events are to blame for the recent spike in cases.

They also pointed to the new strain of the virus found in the United Kingdom as a possible factor behind the surge.

According to the DGHS, hospitalisations for COVID-19 is also on the up.

Until Feb 26, the number of patients admitted to hospital hovered around 1,300 and began to skyrocket from Feb 27. The figure was 1,651 on Mar 9.

There could be three factors behind the fresh spread of the pathogen, said Dr Be-Nazir Ahmed, an adviser to the World Health Organisation.

These include the import of the new UK variant, a greater propensity for transmission in the summer and the lack of adherence to health protocols.

“The UK variant has been spreading fast as many people are coming to Bangladesh from Britain. Some of them were never quarantined, while others isolated for two or seven days only.”

Dr Be-Nazir pointed to an uptick in virus cases last summer and noted the trend is repeating itself this time too, leading him to believe that the coronavirus may spread faster in warm weather conditions.

“It could be that the virus spreads more in summer, especially in countries with hot weather, as we see India suffer from an increase in cases like us. We can reach a conclusion on the issue after two months,” he said.

With more social events taking place recently following an ebb in the number of cases in winter, people are defying health protocols which in turn is causing the infection to spread further, according to Be-Nazir.

“Seeing a drop in virus cases, people may assume that the infection will not spread further. Tourism is back while social events like weddings have also started taking place. Even some elections were held with huge gatherings of people without following health protocols.”

Dr Mushtuq Husain, a former chief scientific officer in icddr,b, is worried about the steady rise in the infection rate.

“It won’t be a mistake to say that there will be trouble ahead unless the recent trend of virus case is bucked,” he told bdnews24.com.

“This is a continuous rise -- the cases don't shoot up and then drop down the next day.”

People are not following the health protocols or quarantine rules for those returning from abroad, while the isolation requirements have been relaxed too, according to Mushtuq. Also, large indoor gatherings may also be behind the surge alongside the arrival of the fast-spreading UK variant, he said.

“The icddr,b found a returnee from Britain in Sylhet carrying the UK variant in January. We need to see if it caused the spread. A genome sequencing of the pathogen will show if the uptick in cases is confined to one place like Dhaka, Sylhet or across the country. If the surge happens across the country then we can't attribute it to the UK variant.”

Although the daily tally of infections is climbing, the country should not go back to enforcing lockdowns, believes Dr Mushtuq. Rather, the health protocols should be maintained stringently as was the case in winter, he said.

With the arrival of the vaccine in Bangladesh, people grew complacent and began to defy the health rules, Dr Ahmedul Kabir, principal of Mugda Medical College Hospital, told bdnews24.com.

“It’s very clear. The moment the coronavirus vaccine arrived in Dhaka airport, people believed that they got the protection. But we need at least two weeks after taking the vaccine shot to develop immunity.

"We should disseminate the fact that people must avoid public gatherings before taking the second dose of the vaccine.”

“We had reached a good position. As people were fearful before the vaccine arrived, they observed the health protocols and the virus was almost eliminated. With the arrival of the vaccine, we became complacent or overconfident, which could be troublesome,” said Dr Kabir.