What coronavirus risks Bangladesh run in winter?

A possible second wave of coronavirus infections during winter is being discussed in Bangladesh for quite a few days as the cold weather is about to set in.

An escalation is feared to be exacerbated by winter diseases like cough and cold, which are also common symptoms of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the virus.

The World Health Organization warned in September that COVID-19 is spreading at a worrying pace in some parts of the northern hemisphere, a few months away from the winter influenza season.

Even Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last month asked all to be prepared for the possible surge in COVID-19 cases, prompting top officials of the administration and law enforcement to meet experts.

Seven out of the 17 kiosks to collect samples were open at the COVID-19 test centre for overseas air passengers in Dhaka’s DNCC Market on Sep 26, 2020. Photo: Mahmud Zaman Ovi

The government is going to make an action plan fleshing out ways to keep the wheels of the economy running should a second wave of coronavirus infection strike Bangladesh during winter, Cabinet Secretary Khandker Anwarul Islam had said after the meeting.

So, what are the risks involving the ongoing coronavirus outbreak in Bangladesh.

ASM Alamgir, the principal scientific officer at the government’s disease control agency IEDCR, thinks the situation in Bangladesh may not get as worse as in the countries where temperature drops sharply during winter. 

Even if the mercury remains at moderate levels, the lifestyle of Bangladeshis during winter may complicate the situation, which will depend on seasonal diseases, the people’s behaviour, and the government’s management system, experts say. 

WINTER’S EFFECTS

The British Academy of Medical Sciences had in a report in July warned that the number of COVID-19-related hospital deaths, excluding care homes, between September 2020 and June 2021 could be as high as 119,900.

Daily-wage labourers are wearing masks to get used to the new normal when the people are getting out to save their livelihoods amid the fight to save lives from COVID-19. Photo: Mahmud Zaman Ovi

The UK is experiencing record surge in coronavirus cases now, with over 10,000 infections reported daily for at least three days. The country lost more than 40,000 people to the pandemic during the first wave earlier this year.

Many fear that the UK and the other European countries are undergoing the second wave now, with worse to come during winter.

“But the seasons in Bangladesh are different. The temperature remains at 14 to 15 degrees Celsius here even during extreme cold while cold means a temperature below five degrees Celsius in Europe. So it’s better not to say anything about the effects of temperature on the outbreak in Bangladesh,” said Alamgir.

But it doesn’t mean that the people can let their guards down, he added.

“We must keep in mind that the virus’s longevity grows when temperature drops. We must be careful instead of panicking or relaxing,” the IEDCR official said.

RISKS

Dr ABM Abdullah, a former dean of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University’s medicine faculty, pointed out the change of lifestyle during winter.

The novel coronavirus can remain in the air for a long period inside enclosed rooms and the people keep the doors and windows shut during winter, he said.

Dr Abdullah also noted that the novel coronavirus originated and spread in China during winter by the end of 2019.

“And now the number of infection is rising in many cold countries with winter approaching. So we can assume that the outbreak may surge here in the coming winter,” he added. 

Public health expert Dr Mushtuq Husain sees another factor that can significantly raise the risk of infection during winter.

Washing hands with soap and warm water, or using sanitiser is one of the key hygiene rules to reduce the risk of infection, but the people tend to avoid water during winter, he said.   

And more people get into close contact during winter than any other season because many festivals and ceremonies are held at this time of the year, he added.

WINTER DISEASES

Winter usually is relatively brief in Bangladesh, but brings different sorts of diseases, such as fever, cold, cough, pneumonia and respiratory infections, cold diarrhoea, eye inflammation and dermatological problems.      

Most of the visitors at Lalbagh Fort showed no respect for health rules amid the coronavirus outbreak. Photo: Mahmud Zaman Ovi

These diseases affected more than 538,000 people in Bangladesh between Nov 1, 2019 and Feb 19, 2020. As many as 61 of them died.

The symptoms of these diseases are common in COVID-19 as well, which poses a risk, said Dr Abdullah.

DANGER LIES IN NEGLIGENCE

Months after the lockdown, life has become almost normal in Bangladesh. Most of the people do not follow the rules like wearing masks and avoiding gatherings.

Such callousness is feared to increase the risk of coronavirus transmission in winter.

Professor Nazrul Islam, a member of the national technical advisory committee to tackle COVID-19, is not happy with the efforts to make people follow the health protocols.

The former BSMMU vice-chancellor lamented the government decision to scrap daily briefing on the COVID-19 situation. He believes the briefings kept people aware of the situation.

Passengers travel standing on a local bus in Chatogram's Tiger Pass on Sep 1, 2020 although the government and transport owners said no passenger more than the number of seats will be allowed to reduce the risk of coronavirus infection. Photo: Suman Babu

“It appears that the people think coronavirus has vanished in Bangladesh. They are not wearing masks,” he said.

Dr Abdullah, who was appointed personal physician of Hasina by the end of last year, also emphasised awareness among the people.

PREPARATIONS

The government has halted COVID-19 treatment in some hospitals, but the others are kept ready considering the risk during winter despite a sharp drop in the number of hospitalised patients, said Additional Secretary Muhibur Rahman, who is in charge of the hospital cell at the Directorate General of Health Services.

Health Secretary Abdul Mannan said they were ‘seriously’ thinking about the risks winter poses.

It will be easier to tackle COVID-19 if the health sector can treat the patients with pneumonia and other respiratory diseases, he said, and added that this is the factor the government is focusing on for the preparations.

Finally, he said, public awareness will be the most important factor in tackling the situation.