Rising temperature may cost Bangladesh 6.7% of GDP by 2050, says World Bank

Rising temperature and erratic rainfall driven by climate change could cost Bangladesh 6.7% of gross domestic product or GDP by 2050, the World Bank says in a new report.

Climate change could depress the living standards of more than three-quarters of Bangladesh’s population by the period, according to the report on the impact of climate change on countries in South Asia, released on Wednesday.

It finds that in the last 60 years the region’s average temperatures have increased and will continue rising, which is affecting agriculture, health and productivity.

By 2050, Chittagong Division will be most vulnerable to changing climate, the report said.

It also highlights that seven out of the top 10 most-affected hotspot districts—where changes in average temperature and precipitation will have a negative effect on living standards—will be in the Chittagong Division.

“The top two climate hotspots will likely be Cox’s Bazar and Bandarban, which may suffer from a more than 18 percent decline in their living standards, followed by Chittagong, Rangamati, and Noakhali.”

It is expected that Bangladesh’s average annual temperatures are expected to rise by 1.0°C to 1.5°C by 2050 even if preventive measures are taken along the lines of those recommended by the Paris climate change agreement of 2015.

“If no measures are taken, then the country’s average temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.0°C to 2.5°C,” the World Bank said.

“These weather changes will result in lower per capita consumption levels that could further increase poverty and inequality in one of the poorest regions of the world, South Asia,” said Muthukumara Mani, report author and World Bank lead economist in the South Asia region.

“Identifying hotspots will help policymakers in finding specific locations and household types where the resources are needed the most to address the rising risk to living standards.”

Hartwig Schafer, WB vice president for South Asia region, said, “Around the world, and especially for Bangladesh, climate change is an acute threat to development and efforts to end poverty.”

“In addition to the coastal zones, the warming weather will severely affect the country’s inland area in the next decades. To deal with climate change, the country needs to focus on creating jobs outside the agriculture sector and improve the capacity of its government institutions. The World Bank is committed to helping Bangladesh become more resilient to climate change.”