Bangladesh’s confirmed coronavirus cases drop despite winter fears

The daily rate of confirmed coronavirus cases in Bangladesh has dropped to 6 percent against the number of tests despite fears of a surge in infections during the winter.

Rising number of cases in the beginning of December increased concerns over a possible rise in the number of COVID-19 infection, but the average daily count have remained below 1,000 in the first week of January.

Besides some precautionary steps taken to keep the infection rate low, the season and nature of the virus may have played a role in the drop in number of positive tests, public health experts say.

They have also warned that it will be difficult to keep the situation under control if the people do not follow the health rules properly, especially wear face masks, when the cold bites in Magh, the second month of winter on the Bengali calendar.

The winter arrived earlier this year than before, but no clod wave hit Dhaka in December, meteorologist Bazlur Rashid said on Friday.

Cold waves are likely ahead after the mercury drops again in the second week of January, he said. 

The daily infection count compared with the number of tests rose above 20 percent on May 31 and hovered around the mark through to August, according to data from the Directorate General of Health Services.

The rate began dropping afterwards. The daily average was 15.63 percent until Jan 8.

The average infection rate increased from 11.41 percent in October with 1,420 cases to 13.08 percent in November, when the government reported 1,908 cases a day.

In December, the rate dropped again to 10.27 percent with 1,566 cases daily.

In the first eight days of January, the DGHS confirmed 898 cases daily on an average at 6.92 percent of the tests.

As many as 181 labs, including 114 RT-PCR labs, 27 gene expert labs and 40 rapid antigen test labs, reported 785 positive cases after testing 13,681 samples in the 24 hours to 8am on Friday. The infection rate was 5.74 percent. 

With the new positive tests, the country’s coronavirus caseload has increased to 520,690 with 7,734 deaths. 

Dr Nazrul Islam, a former vice-chancellor or Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, said the people get more infected with influenza A, parainfluenza 3, rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus in winter.

These viruses are responsible for common cold, cough, fever and pneumonia and may have played a role in the drop in number of coronavirus cases.

“May be the coronavirus could not attack us to a larger degree because we have already been infected with indigenous viruses,” explained the virologist. 

“You must have noticed that the number of infections was higher during the hot weather in Bangladesh. The number dropped after August although we had though it would increase in winter,” he said.

The people are much aware now and it would be possible to keep the rate down if they continue the practice of wearing masks, Dr Nazrul added.

Dr Mushtuq Husain, a public health expert currently working as a member of the committee on coronavirus vaccine distribution, said the possibility of a drop in infections due to the weather cannot be ruled out.

“But it may rise again if we don’t emphasise the mask rules,” he warned, adding that human behaviour can affect the infection rate.

Dr Ahmedul Kabir, general secretary of Bangladesh Society of Medicine and member secretary of the committee on coronavirus treatment protocol, said the government imposed a “no mask, no service” rule at all offices before winter arrived.

Public gatherings like wedding parties, concerts, rallies have also been restricted, which yielded a good result, he said.     

He also said that there is no alternative to wearing masks to control the situation.

“We can’t ease the rules now,” he said.