‘Prediction professor’ and filmmaker predict Trump’s impeachment
News Desk, bdnews24.com
Published: 2016-11-12 14:38:59.0 BdST Updated: 2016-11-12 14:40:19.0 BdST
President Donald Trump will be impeached before the end of his first term, filmmaker Michael Moore and political historian Allan Lichtman predict.
Both of them had gone against conventional punditry to predict Trump’s win in the 2016 election.
“Here’s what’s going to happen, this is why we’re not going to have to suffer through four years of Donald J Trump, because he has no ideology except the ideology of Donald J Trump,” Moore said Friday on MSNBC’s 'Morning Joe.'
“And when you have a narcissist like that, who’s so narcissistic where it’s all about him, he will, maybe unintentionally, break laws. He will break laws because he’s only thinking about what’s best for him.”
He also called Trump a “racist”, a “misogynist” and an “authoritarian”.
Lichtman, a political historian and Washington, DC-based professor, had made his prediction on a history- based system of 'keys' that predict election results ahead of time.
The “keys” are a series of 13 true/false questions Lichtman has outlined in the book 'Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016'.
His system has accurately predicted every election since 1984, except the 2000 election where Al Gore won the popular vote but lost to George W Bush.
“I'm going to make another prediction,” he told The Washington Post. “This one is not based on a system; it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him.
"He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
In an email to the Post on Friday, Lichtman called into question the value of poll predictions.
"Even the analysis of polls by Nate Silver and others, which claimed a probable Clinton victory with from more than 70 percent to 99 percent certainty, are mere compilations."
He also disparaged the statistical approach undertaken by notable analyst Nate Silver.
“For all his acclaim, Nate Silver is only a clerk, not a scientific analyst,” Lichtman said.
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