Big three parties show gain in vote share, a trend that could lead to a hung UK parliament

Thursday’s general election in Britain may yield a hung parliament with three major parties gaining in support and smaller parties suffering erosion, a new poll has indicated.

The Labour Party led with 13 points in London as Ed Miliband entered the final day of campaigning, said a survey by YouGov for the London Evening Standard.

Labour had gained two points in a fortnight, the survey said, to reach 46 percent, the best figure since November 2013.

David Cameroon’s Conservative Party has been foreseen to gain one point to carve out a 33 percent share.

Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democratic Party, too, were up one point at the third position with nine percent share.

The big three’s gain was evidently at the expense of smaller ones such as Ukip and the Greens, which lost points in the pre-polls popularity rating.

Nigel Farage’s Ukip was said to be down two points to eight.

This could make all the difference in seats such as Croydon Central and Harrow East, where thousands of Ukippers hold the balance, says the paper.

Natalie Bennett’s Greens have suffered the maximum loss, slipping to two points with just three percent. This is the party’s lowest level since last August.

“That could make a crucial difference in seats such as Bermondsey and Old Southwark, where the Labour v Lib-Dem battle is on a knife-edge,” says the Evening Standard.

The survey done from Apr 29 to May 1 says Labour’s lead is its biggest since last May when it had its best local election results for a generation.

The result marks a swing of 5.5 percent from the Conservatives since the 2010 election, the survey has revealed.

In London, Labour could pick up eight to ten seats, the survey predicts.

And if that trend were to be true of the whole of Britain, the country could well head for a hung parliament with Milliband and Cameron forced to work on deals to cobble up a coalition.
                      

“This is one of the closest elections in living memory and our latest London results point to a nervy night for both main parties,” YouGov’s Laurence Janta-Lipinski has been quoted as saying.

“With key Conservative and Labour marginals across the capital crucial to the national outcome, all eyes will be on seats such as Croydon Central and Finchley and Golders Green as parties and pundits alike hope to get an idea as to what the next government will look like.”

The survey also reveals a big gender gap when it comes to voting on Thursday.

Fifty percent of women seem to favour Labour; 29 percent are for the Conservatives.

As for men, the divide is 43 to 36.

Labour attributes the phenomenon to the party’s focus on cost of living and childcare.

YouGov found only a third of those who voted for Liberal Democrat in 2010 doing the same this time.

About 41 percent are believed to have swung in favour of Labour, with 17 percent crossing to the Conservatives.

Labour’s 2010 vote remains largely intact, with 84 percent saying they will cast their ballot for the party again.

The figure for the Tories is 77 percent. Ukip has attracted a bigger share of supporters from the Tories than from Labour.

Some 12 percent of 2010’s Tory voters have crossed to Ukip, compared with just 4 percent of those who backed Labour.