Congress wooing Ajmal's AIUDF in Assam to fight BJP

Assam's ruling Congress party is desperately courting Maulana Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in an effort to stop the BJP from ousting it from power.

Assam is one of the Indian states where state assembly elections are due early next year -- and the only one where the BJP stands a chance of doing well.

In states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, powerful regional parties are likely to return to power.

Since 2001, the northeastern state of Assam has been ruled by the Congress and chief minister Gogoi's hat-trick has been cited in India's oldest party as evidence of the difference strong regional leaders can make.

But with just five months left for polls in Assam, where the BJP won seven out of the state's 14 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha (lower House) polls, the Congress seems to be fighting with its back to the wall.

The BJP announced a new state president on Saturday -- India's Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal. 

Sonowal is often referred to as 'Jatiyo Bir’ (Assamese hero) in Assam for his role in the dogged legal battle that led to the scrapping of the IMDT ACT by India's Supreme Court.

The Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, IMDT for short, was seen by the ethnic Assamese as a major impediment to detect and deport illegal migrants from Bangladesh and Nepal.

Minorities saw the IMDT act as a law that gave them some protection against needless harassment and threatened ouster from Assam.

Even as the BJP prepares for the battle alone, the Congress is busy trying to work a deal with Maulana Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF.

Ajmal’s party originated in 2006 as Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) and won seven seats in the first state polls it contested.

Five years later, in 2011, it won 18 seats in the Assam polls.

With Muslims increasingly turning to AIUDF, the party is seen as capable of doing even better in the 126-member Assam assembly this time on.

Some see Ajmal as the kingmaker after the 2016 polls.

Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi once said "Ajmal Kune" (who is Ajmal), a slight the bearded Maulana, who is also a perfume baron, has not forgotten.

But now Gogoi is courting Ajmal desperately.

Maulana Badruddin Ajmal (File Photo)

During the swearing-in of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar's Cabinet in Patna, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi exchanged pleasantries with Ajmal and discussions between them lasted a while.

But Congress sources are tightlipped over the discussions -- as are those in AIUDF.

The behind-the-scene parleys between the Congress and the AIUDF, possibly to work up an anti-BJP alliance, has got the Hindutva brigade crying foul.

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) senior leader Indresh Kumar has said that the Gogoi government has been using the Bangladeshis as a vote bank for a very long time.

"This time around as well, Gogoi is befriending the Bangladeshis to grab power in the state," he said.

BJP leaders say if the Congress and the AIUDF join hands it will help them consolidate the Hindu vote bank.

The Modi government's decision to legistimise the stay of Hindus from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan in India is a move the BJP thinks will help them bring together the Assamese and Bengali Hindus on their electoral plank in the 2016 state polls.

Tarun Gogoi (File Photo)

But Assamese regional groups, as vocal on illegal migration as the BJP, have opposed the move, saying that Hindu or Muslim illegal migrants from Bangladesh were both unwelcome in Assam.

Former AUDF leader Hafiz Rashid Choudhury says a Congress-AIUDF alliance will help BJP capitalise the 'illegal migration' issue to their advantage in Assamese dominated areas , specially in Upper Assam.

But Congress leader Pradip Dutta Ray says it will help consolidate the minority votes behind the Congress-AIUDF alliance if that were to take shape.

"Or else, if the AIUDF splits the minority vote bank and Congress loses most of the seats to Ajmal's  party in minority dominated areas, the BJP will find it easy to surge ahead through the middle," Dutta Ray said.

Bodo tribal leader Hangrama Mohilary, once a Congress ally , has said he was prepared to align with Ajmal's party.

That comes as a bit of a surprise because Muslims were targetted by Bodo militants when Mohilary ran the Bodoland Autonomous Territorial Council as its chief.

Some Congress leaders are enthusiastic about a Bihar style Grand Alliance they think is the only way to stop the BJP in Assam.

With barely five months left for the Assam polls, Bangladesh is becoming a factor in the Assam polls in much the same way as India often becomes a factor in elections in Bangladesh.