Suu Kyi can't be president

Unless there is a change in a key constitutional provision, popular pro-democracy icon Aung Sang Suu Kyi cannot run for presidency in Myanmar.

Article 59F bars anyone with close relatives who are foreigners from running for the country's presidency.

A report on Myanmar elections by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) says Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) is expected to win a majority—even if it is not as popular as in 1990 or 2012 when it swept national elections and bye-elections respectively.

The ICG report says, "With Aung San Suu Kyi constitutionally barred from the presidency and no other obvious candidate within her party, a compromise nominee will likely have to be sought. How she, her party and its supporters will respond – with criticism, compromise or confrontation – will have a major impact on the tone and direction of future politics."

It says the NLD will possibly have to settle for a 'reformist figure' from the pro-military dispensation if the contentious provision is not changed in a referendum promised by the government of President U Thein Sein.

The ICG report points to challenges for a credible election.

"Trust in government among the electorate is low, as is the perceived independence and neutrality of the election commission. However, the increasingly transparent and consultative way in which it is working and its decisions suggest it is trying to ensure a credible and inclusive election, though the challenges, in a context of a fragile peace process and newly opening political space, are enormous."

It says the stakes are high.

"The main ethnic minority parties are likely to further consolidate their power in the borderlands. The NLD, competing in its first general election since the abortive 1990 polls, is well-placed to dominate nationally. This would be a major shift in the political landscape, away from the USDP-dominated legislature and with a significant impact on the old elite. While the current leadership appears reconciled to this, how the broader elite will react is uncertain."

But the ICG report is more worried about the time between the elections and the transfer of power could be fraught.

"The challenge is to hold credible and peaceful elections, but also to manage the transition to a new political power structure. It is an opportunity to reinforce the reform process, or a moment when zero-sum politics could imperil it."